Jonathan Chancellor | 14 December 2012

ANZ notes housing demand/supply fundamentals continue to tighten, with net migration and population

ANZ has noted housing demand/supply fundamentals continue to tighten, buoyed by net migration and population growth accelerating.

Given building activity was only moderately higher than cyclical lows, there was now pressure in vacancy rates.

Strong demand for existing rental stock was adding upward pressure to advertised rents across most Australian capital cities rental markets.

It was also creating some spill over activity in the home buying market from first home buyers, with the relative cost of mortgage payments to rents decreasing.

"Looking through the distortions of first home buyer policy incentives, first home buyer finance levels are around 25% higher than the recent low in early 2011, the report by David Cannington and Paul Braddick noted.

"We expect demand for first home buyer finance will continue to recover through 2013," the 2012 housing chartbook said.

The report noted house prices have increased in recent months across most capital cities aided by interest rate cuts and tightening underlying housing market demand/supply fundamentals.

However, the housing market outlook across states and territories will likely remain "quite desynchronised."

In the coming year, house prices in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Darwin are likely to increase moderately, while soft state economic activity is expected to keep house prices flat to moderately lower in Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart.

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