Townsville has best regional Queensland prospects with smaller Gold Coast recovery by 2015: BIS Shrapnel

By Larry Schlesinger
Friday, 20 July 2012

Townsville is forecast to be the strongest-performing regional location in Queensland between now and 2015, according to researchers BIS Shrapnel.

Property values in Townsville are forecast to rise by 6% per year over the next three years, with the regional city benefiting from rising investment in the resources sector over 2012-13, says BIS Shrapnel in its latest Residential Property Prospects, 2012 to 2015 report.

Townsville’s projected growth is just below the cumulative 20% forecast for Brisbane over the three-year period.

Further north, Cairns will also benefit from resources investment, with 5% annual dwelling growth to 2015.

The weakest growth prospects are on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, with BIS Shrapnel forecasting capital growth of 4.2% per annum to 2015 due to a drop in interstate migration.

March quarter sales figures released by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland showed that Townsville has been one the strongest-performing Queensland municipalities, with just a 2% decline in house prices and no change in unit prices over the prior 12 months.

In comparison Gold Coast house and unit prices are down 5.1% over this period.

Region	Median Sale Mar12	Qtrly change	Median Sale 12mths Mar12	1yr change
SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND
BRISBANE (SD)	$ 425,000	0.0%	$ 430,000	-5.5%
BRISBANE CITY (LGA)	$ 505,000	1.2%	$ 510,000	-4.7%
GOLD COAST CITY (LGA) +	$ 454,375	0.7%	$ 470,000	-5.1%
SUNSHINE COAST (LGA) +	$ 430,000	0.6%	$ 437,000	-6.0%
TOWNSVILLE CITY (LGA)	$ 360,000	0.0%	$ 365,000	-2.0%
CAIRNS (LGA) ~	$ 350,000	4.5%	$ 350,000	-4.1%

“With both Townsville and Cairns offering services to these mining projects, as well as a base for employees in and out of the projects, population growth should benefit with a rising shortage of dwellings emerging until new supply catches up,” says BIS Shrapnel.

“Moreover, the improvement in local economic conditions should also see confidence improve after a period of weakness. Townsville should expect a greater upside to its recovery due to its more diversified economy, although both markets should experience moderate price growth.”

The report notes that house prices on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have generally moved in tandem with Brisbane due primarily to population growth driven by interstate migration.

However, due to interstate migration into Queensland now at long-term lows, BIS Shrapnel says the residential markets on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have weakened considerably.