"We believe the rate of arrears will hold steady in 2012 because of the recent cuts in interest rates and our expectation that GDP growth will remain robust at 3.8% in 2012."
Australian borrowers remain world beaters on mortgage management as arrears fall further in July: Moody’s
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The percentage of Australian borrowers more than a month behind on their mortgage repayments fell for the second consecutive month in July following the RBA cash rate cuts in May and June, with the proportion of Australian borrowers at risk of defaulting on their mortgages well below that of other first-world economies, according to global credit rating agency Moody's.
Moody’s expects the arrears rate to hold steady for the remainder of the year following Tuesday’s rate cut.
The delinquency rate for mortgages more than 30 days in arrears in the Australian prime residential mortgage market was 1.61% in July, down from 1.66% in June and 1.67% in May.
A year ago the 30-day-plus arrears rate was 1.64%.
The biggest fall was the in the 30 to 60 days in arrears basket, which dropped from 0.74% to 0.66%, a month-on-month decline of 10%.
However, those borrowers more than three months behind in their mortgage payments increased from 0.63% to 0.66% – a rise of nearly 5%.
Putting this into an international context, the US has a 60 days or more arrears rate of 6.57% – six times higher than Australia (0.95%)
One of the worst-performing housing markets is Ireland, which has a 60 days or more arrears rate of 17.22% – meaning nearly one in five borrowers are at risk of default.
Another basket case economy, Greece, has more than doubled its 60-day-plus arrears rate from 2.38% in August 2010 to 5.37% in August 2012.
Japan has a 60-day-plus arrears rate of 0.21%.