August awaits as economists unanimous on no RBA cash rate cut at July meeting: Bloomberg survey

Borrowers can forget about an RBA cash rate cut on Tuesday, according to the latest Bloomberg survey of 28 economists.

All 28 expect the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold at its July 2 meeting at 3.5%.

A decided majority – 19 out of 28 – expect the RBA to reduce the cash rate at its August 7 meeting – including economists at all four of the major banks.

One economist – Stephen Koukoulas from policy group Market Economics and former advisor to the Gillard government – is forecasting a 50 basis point rate cut in August to bring the cash rate down to 3.5%.

The verdict on where the cash rate will be at the end of the year is quite mixed, but the majority (15 economists) expect just one rate cut in the second half of the year bringing the cash rate down to 3.25%.

Six are forecasting a 3% cash rate and three a 2.75% cash rate by year-end.