CBD hotels best of a weak commercial property bunch, NAB survey

CBD hotels enjoy the strongest price growth outlook in the commercial property sector, but an uncertain economic climate is negatively impacting the timing of recovery expectations in all commercial property markets by varying degrees.

CBD hotels enjoy the strongest forecast upturn, expected to be up 1.6% by quarter two 2013 and 3% by quarter two 2014, according to the NAB quarterly Australian commercial property survey.

Office values are predicted to rise 1.1% and 2% in next one and two years respectively.

Industrial values are expected to fall 0.9% over next year and rise 0.9% by June 2014.

Retail values are expected to fall 1.2% in the next year and 0.2% in the next two years.

For the office property market recovery expectation timeline, about 32% of respondents expect the market would begin recovering by quarter four 2012, down from 50% in the NAB last commercial office survey.

In the retail property market, only 25% of respondents to the NAB survey said the recovery would begin by late 2012, compared with 51% in the previous survey.

The biggest change in expectations was noted in the industrial property sector, where the timing of recovery was pushed back significantly.

Some 56% of respondents now see the recovery in the industrial property sector commencing between quarter two 2013 and quarter four 2013, compared with 33% in the last survey.

The bank launched the NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey in April 2010.

Around 300 panellists participated in the June 2012 consisting of real estate agents/managers, property developers, asset/fund managers and owners/investors.