Affordable end of the property market outperforming top end of town

Most people who have any interest in the housing market will appreciate that the performance of home values can vary broadly based on a range of factors. Geographically, for example, we have seen Darwin values rise by more than 8% over the first eight months of the year, while Melbourne values have fallen by 2.6% over the same time frame.   Across the broad housing types there are differences as well, with unit markets generally showing stronger conditions compared with the detached housing market.

We are also seeing significant differences across price segments in the market, with the most expensive housing markets generally underperforming compared with the more affordable markets.  Across the combined capital cities, the most expensive 20% of suburbs have recorded fall of 8.5% since the market peak, compared with a 4% fall across the most affordable 20% of suburbs and a 4.4% fall across the broad middle 60% of suburbs.

As can be seen from the graph above, the most expensive markets have outperformed the broader capital city average during the growth phases but underperformed during the corrections.  Over the past five years the annual rate of growth across the most expensive segment of the market has been just 1.7% per annum, compared with a growth rate of 2.9% per annum across the most affordably priced suburbs and 3.3% per annum across the broad middle-priced suburbs.

The trends across the price segments aren’t uniform across all of the capital cities.  Brisbane and Adelaide are showing the opposite performance, with the more expensive price segments of the market returning a better result for dwelling values compared with the more affordable priced suburbs.  This is interesting in the sense that Adelaide and Brisbane are also the most affordable mainland capital cities to be buying in (Adelaide’s median dwelling price is $371,500 and Brisbane’s is $405,000).  The weaker-performance in these markets can be linked with mortgage repayment pressures being felt across the mortgage belts of both these cities, particularly in south-east Queensland, where many of the most affordable suburbs in the region have shown a higher-than-average level of mortgage arrears.

The performance across price segments highlights why it is so important to drill down below the capital city boundaries in order to truly understand housing market conditions.  Prospective home buyers and sellers should be looking at the dynamic of the housing market from a localised perspective ensuring they are in tune with market conditions at both the macro and micro level.  There are bound to be significant differences in how markets are performing.

Tim Lawless is national research director of RP Data.