Home buying intentions approaching boomtime levels: CBA

The latest data from the Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) series released today shows the sharp increase in home buying intentions is continuing.

CBA’s Chief Economist Michael Blythe said, “The sharp upswing in home buying intentions continues and intentions are now approaching the record highs seen in early 2017.”

Current HSI readings are consistent with an ongoing increase in dwelling prices and a bottoming out in residential construction activity.

“The ongoing improvement in the home buying intentions series indicates that the low point for residential building construction will probably be around mid 2020,” he added.

Mr Blythe said retail spending intentions show a modest improvement is in place.

“The latest edition of the Commonwealth Bank HSI series, which incorporates data to the end of October, supports the RBA’s view that the economy has reached a ‘gentle turning point’. But the improvement is quite modest given the size of tax rebates and interest rate cuts delivered in recent months,” Mr Blythe said.

“By fuelling fears about the economic outlook, rate cuts are probably blunting some of the potential boost from tax rebates and rising house prices,” he added.

Mr Blythe also noted that trends in some non-retail spending look reasonably encouraging.