The burning property question Tony Abbott must answer: Robert Simeon

Now more than ever I’m totally convinced that the vast majority of property commentators subscribe to the theory of inductive reasoning when they want to get their points across pertaining to the Australian residential property markets.  

Wikipedia describes “inductive reasoning (as opposed to deductive reasoning or abductive reasoning) is reasoning in which the premises seek to supply strong evidence for (not absolute proof of) the truth of the conclusion. While the conclusion of a deductive argument is certain, the truth of the conclusion of an inductive argument is probable, based upon the evidence given.”

Now here is the dilemma that the prime minister faces with the Australian property markets and whilst nobody talks about this I’d be letting you down if I didn’t tackle this highly controversial topic of conversation.

Now the problem was created by Kevin Rudd when he was prime minister and for some strange reason (and I mean strange) his actions have not been corrected given these actions lie at the heart of Australia’s ongoing property boom – in my opinion this is disastrous policy.

In December 2008 property developers were restricted where only 50% of a new development could be sold off the plan to foreign investors. Kevin Rudd then changed the ratio to 100% and that figure is still in place today. Just as strange is that nobody is debating this figure where given the strength of the real estate markets today I would be happier to see these developments restricted to say 25% or even lower.

Even stranger was when in 2008 – 09 Kevin Rudd removed all foreign ownership rules meaning that foreign buyers could acquire pre – existing property which was shut down again in late 2010. I would argue that this opened the door to foreigners buying pre – existing properties and this still continues today given that everyone is only too well aware that the federal government does not track real estate transactions.

The sad reality is that today nobody knows just how many properties have been illegally acquired given the government is doing absolutely nothing about this. They will say that they are using inductive reasoning to solve this almighty mess. The question that really needs to be asked is why does the Australian government still allow 100% of off – the – plan sales to go offshore which is driving the prices up, given foreign buyers will always pay a premium price to secure Australian residential real estate?

An obvious response from property developers would be that they would stop developing given overseas buyers are the strongest peak market for new residential properties. No doubt they would be in all probability active in political donations too. Property developers are posting record profits thanks to 100% of off the plan sales being allowed by the Australian government to be sent offshore. This also explains why Chinese developers are now buying up the majority of development sites given an entire development can be sold in just a matter of hours. This of course is the major ingredient that is driving property prices for new properties to record highs – yet the federal government is saying and more importantly doing nothing to correct this 2008 – 09 horrific property policy.

Recently I touched on Lots of positives from discussing negative policies although nothing happens in Canberra. The NSW government is in the process of merging councils, given they stand in the way of new developments when today we have a massive housing shortage. The Mike Baird government has embarked on a plan that will see 664,000 new homes built by 2031 – developers know full well that the vast majority will be sold offshore given the absurd 100% rule permits this.

Making matters worse is that the Abbott government constantly dismisses the need for their government to have a housing minister.

The Property Council of Australia announced this week that the property sector now contributes more to Australian gross domestic product than mining. The property sector is estimated to generate 11.5% of GDP, employs 1.1 million Australians and pays $72.1 billion in state, federal and local real estate taxes each year.

Of course the inductive reasoning argument from Canberra will be along the lines of Infrastructure Australia predicts Sydney’s population will reach 6.1 million in 2031. In 2015 the population estimates come in at around the 4.9 million which is an extra 1.2 million people which works out at 80,000 per year. 

Maybe we should add to that statistic that all the landlords will be foreign buyers living overseas – or is that inductive reasoning? Whatever the reasoning the question needs to be asked just why the 100% ratio has not been wound back? 

We all know that this is disastrous policy unless you’re a property developer (and real estate agent of course.)

 MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 85

• Number of houses on the market last week – 65

• Number of houses on the market this week – 68

• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 64

• Number of apartments on the market last week – 47

• Number of apartments on the market this week – 46

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8

• Number of houses on the market last week – 5

• Number of houses on the market this week – 8

• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 16

• Number of apartments on the market last week – 10

• Number of apartments on the market this week – 13

Neutral Bay – 2089

* Number of houses on the market this time last year – 4

• Number of houses on the market last week – 6

• Number of houses on the market this week – 7

• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 44

• Number of apartments on the market last week – 29

• Number of apartments on the market this week – 26

Robert Simeon is a director of Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog Virtual Realty News since 2000.