Cbd Market

EXPERT OBSERVER

It&rsquo;s long overdue for real estate consumers to let go of the notion that proximity to the CBD matters.

Long before the pandemic and its impact on the Central Business Districts of our major cities, the relevance of the CBD in choosing where to live or invest was diminishing year by year.

The fallacy persists that most people work in the CBD. The reality is that, in all our capital cities, the vast majority work in suburban employment nodes.

There are, for example, over 2.1 million people employed in the Greater Melbourne area, but only about 20% work in the City of Melbourne (the CBD and near-city suburbs).

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For most people, when it comes to choosing a place to live, the CBD is irrelevant.

They don&rsquo;t work there, they don&rsquo;t shop there and their kids don&rsquo;t go to school there.

The average person has little reason to ever visit a CBD, although they may occasionally go to a CBD for entertainment or leisure.

But I still have people regularly raising, as an objection to a particular location, that it&rsquo;s a long way from the CBD.

Like many myths in real estate, this one just refuses to die.

In Sydney, the suburbs closest to the CBD are greatly under-valued, with median house prices well under $2 million (which is miserable by Sydney standards), like Redfern ($1.45 million), Newtown ($1.42 million), Glebe ($1.7 million) and Camperdown ($1.6 million).

The most prestigious suburbs, the ones with median prices above $3 million, are in many cases a long way from the tall office buildings &ndash; suburbs like Cremorne, Killara, Lindfield and Manly.

The Sydney locations with the best long-term capital growth rates, those where price growth has averaged more than 8% per year over the past decade, include many which a great distance from the Sydney CBD.

They include humble suburbs a long, long way from the City, like &hellip;

<ul>
	<li>St Marys out at Penrith,</li>
	<li>Minto and Macquarie Fields in the far south-west,</li>
	<li>Parramatta and North Parramatta,</li>
	<li>Marsden Park out near Blacktown,</li>
	<li>Middleton Grange in the precinct around Liverpool,</li>
	<li>Smithfield in the Cumberland LGA,</li>
	<li>Canley Vale in the Fairfield LGA,</li>
	<li>Kogarah in the Georges River LGA</li>
</ul>

They also include Northern Beaches suburbs like Seaforth, Avalon Beach and Dee Why, as well as north-of-the-harbour locales like Cremorne, Lindfield, North Willoughby and West Ryde.

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In Melbourne, if you want to find superior capital growth over time, you need to head a long way from the City centre, in most cases.

The greatest concentration of suburbs with long-term growth averages above 7% per year in the Greater Melbourne area is the Mornington Peninsula, where Bittern, Mt Martha, Tootgarook and Sorrento all have outstanding growth records.

The distance between Sorrento and the Melbourne CBD is over 100km, around an hour and a half by car. The median house price for Sorrento has risen almost 30% in the past 12 months. Nearby Tootgarook is a lot less expensive, despite a 20% rise in the median price in the past year.

Only slightly closer to the tall buildings is the new development suburb of Clyde North in the City of Casey, with a long-term growth rate close to 9% per year.

The suburb of Williams Landing down in Wyndham City in the far south-west also has a long-term growth rate above 8% per year &ndash; as does the suburb of Mickleham in the City of Hume in the far north of the Melbourne metro area.

Middle-ring areas with great growth rates include Box Hill, Brunswick East and Derrimut.

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All those places out-perform Toorak, Elwood, Elsternwick, Glen Iris, Kew and Malvern on capital growth rates.

Upmarket near-city locations which have outstanding growth rates &ndash; these are the exceptions rather than the norms &ndash; include Hawthorn, South Yarra and South Melbourne.

The key message is that the elements that drive values higher, because they attract buyers in large numbers, include affordability, infrastructure and lifestyle. Proximity to the CBD doesn&rsquo;t feature prominently.

So, if you&rsquo;re a home buyer or investor with a budget that forces you to buy in middle or outer ring areas, don&rsquo;t worry about it. There are way bigger things it&rsquo;s good to be close to, other than the CBD.

It’s long overdue for real estate consumers to let go of the notion that proximity to the CBD matters.

terryryder

Nothing wrong with buying property away from the CBD: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Australian CBDs are still reeling from the impact of COVID-19, with new data revealing a deceleration in the rate of workers returning to their offices.

The Property Council of Australia’s latest office occupancy survey has found little growth in the number of workers returning to offices in February across most Australian CBDs.

Especially following recent snap lockdowns, Melbourne and Perth CBDs both had less workers at the end of February than they had at the end of January. Melbourne’s CBD recorded only 24% occupancy in the final week of February.

Sydney’s CBD experienced the strongest growth last month with 48% occupancy recorded - up from 45% in the final week of January.

<img alt="" height="1016" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/cbd_office_vacancy.jpg" width="1200">

Survey respondents identified worker preferences for greater flexibility as the main barrier to achieving full occupancy despite office building owners and managers working to ensure workplaces are COVID-safe.

“As Australia’s public health response reaches a new phase and the vaccination program rolls out, we’re looking forward to more CBD workers coming back to their offices to enjoy the benefits of face-to-face connections and collaboration,” said Property Council chief Ken Morrison.

“Lively city centres are not only important for the thousands of businesses who rely on foot traffic, but also for millions of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars in broader economic activity generated in our CBDs,” he noted.

But boosting office occupancy levels remains a big challenge, especially in the secondary office space which is at risk of lower occupier demand and high vacancy, and likely in need of being retrofitted or repurposed. A recent PWC report advised around 12% of Australia’s economic activity during the 2019 financial year can be attributed to four of the country’s largest CBDs, but were likelier than the wider community to work from home.

"We believe that this so-called ‘death of the CBD’ has been exaggerate," PWC advised. "As the risks of COVID-19 recede, we can expect people to return to work in Australian CBDs." RMIT planning Professor Michael Buxton believes the emptying out of commercial buildings will be temporary, telling The Age the greater threat to the CBD was the loss of international students and short-term renters in high-rise apartments.
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Survey respondents identified worker preferences for greater flexibility as the main barrier to achieving full occupancy. 

jchancellor

The return to workers in CBD offices slows

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The retail market in Sydney in 2016 is set to follow last year’s growth trend, with increased demand from investors continuing to drive the market, according to Herron Todd White’s retail outlook.
Properties with established retail tenants will be popular this year, particularly if the share market continues its downward trend, it says.
CBD and prime retail locations are still going strong with several transactions at sub 5% yields in the last half of 2015. The anticipation of changes to the CBD such as the light rail and George Street closure have investors looking to the CBD for returns and capital growth. This demand is likely to continue, according to them.
Rents are likely to remain stable in 2106 with evidence that an increase in prime locations is probable. 
Areas to watch are strong suburban strips that have embraced change. A good example is Oxford Street, Paddington which has been plagued by high vacancy rates and extended selling periods. While some pockets of fashion remain along this once popular strip, change is becoming evident with restaurants, wine bars and cafes now the focus. 
The main area for concern in the retail market is suburban strata lots. The increase in mixed-use development across the Sydney metro area has increased supply. Most of these are offered to the market on a vacant possession basis and therefore lack appeal for investors. Last year saw increased vacancy rates in some of the areas where this type of development is concentrated. 
This year does not look any better for this asset type, with more development occurring and little increase in demand, say HTW.
Bulky goods also remain a focus in Sydney with new residential subdivisions in the south-west, west and north-west of Sydney driving demand. 
The impact of the recent announcement that Woolworths will be selling or winding up the Masters Home Improvement chain is yet to be seen but may bring bulky goods under scrutiny. 
Overall the outlook for retail is positive with 2016 looking to be a year of further growth in capital values and rentals, particularly among the prime locations where investors are most active.
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Sydney's retail market set to continue 2015 growth trend: HTW

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CBD markets for capital cities, bar Sydney and Melbourne, are seeing improving rental conditions though their growth rates are low compared to the two biggest cities, according to Colliers International’s CBD Office research and forecast report.
Sydney and Melbourne have benefitted from a “hold on supply” and consistently strong demand, pushing office rents higher and higher. 
Over the year to June 2017, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/74783-supply-demand-imbalance-in-sydney-melbourne-continues-to-push-up-rents-colliers" target="_blank">prime grade face rents grew </a>by 7.8 per cent in Sydney, and 14 per cent in Melbourne. 
Population growth in New South Wales and Victoria has been the key catalyst in the market’s “perfect storm” conditions, with migration figures well above their 10-year averages in both states fuelling strong white collar job creation – but the Colliers report revealed that office supply will be constrained during this time of strong demand.
Colliers International’s national director of Research, Anneke Thompson, said office supply for the next 12 months was “even more ominous”.
“We’re forecasting the Sydney CBD office market to contract by 50,000 sqm throughout the year to July 2018, and the Melbourne CBD to reduce by circa 5,000 sqm, based on the supply that we know will enter the market and forecast withdrawals,” she said.
The story is not as bright for other capital cities.
Brisbane appears to be in recovery mode, with a solid level of premium and A-grade office leasing deals completed throughout the first half of 2017, Colliers noted.
In line with this comeback, the vacancy rate is forecast to decline to 13-14 per cent by January 2019.
A major development was QSuper signing a heads of agreement with Shayher Group to negotiate a lease for its 300 George Street office building, which is due for completion mid-2019.
In Adelaide, vacancy is starting to fall with the market recording its highest net absorption figures since January 2014.
Net absorption in the six months to July was 4,624 sqm, while the annual figure was 6,016 sqm.
This has seen vacancy fall ever so slightly to 16.1 per cent, down from 16.2 per cent in January 2017, said Colliers.
The small decline can be partially attributed to the remainder of the recently refurbished 1 King William Street being added back into supply.
Meanwhile, Perth CBD is also seeing some stability in the office leasing market, with vacancy falling to 21.1 per cent.
Net absorption is being driven by tenants’ flight to quality and new investment spend into increasing Western Australia’s output capacity of iron ore.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

CBD office rental markets improving in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth: Colliers 

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The simplest of all economic theories, the one most first year economic students are taught on day one, is the theory of supply and demand. 
Today, we can witness the Sydney and Melbourne CBD office markets as a perfect real-life example of this phenomenon. Both NSW and Victoria are experiencing extraordinary population growth fuelled by migration. 
According to the ABS, 72,013 local and overseas migrants moved to NSW, and an unprecedented 92,038 migrants moved to Victoria in 2016. These figures are 38 per cent and 45 per cent respectively above the 10-year average migration levels for these two states. 
This flow of migrants is contributing to strong white collar job creation in both capital cities – the demand side of our equation. The supply side, however, is not keeping up. 
The Sydney CBD office market only grew by 4,314 sqm over the last 12 months. This is a mere 0.1 per cent of total CBD supply. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/21/SydneyCBD.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/SydneyCBD.png" alt="">
Melbourne had far stronger supply, growing by 109,640 sqm over the past year, although all of this and more was absorbed. 
Total vacant space reduced from 313,311 sqm in July 2016, to 294,562 in July 2017. Supply for the next twelve months is even more ominous. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/21/MelbourneCBD.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/MelbourneCBD.png" alt="">
Colliers International is forecasting the Sydney CBD office market to contract by 50,000 sqm over the year to July 2018, and the Melbourne CBD to reduce by 7,000 sqm. This, at a time when Deloittes Access Economics expects an additional 5,600 office based workers to require space in the Sydney CBD, and 6,121 workers in the Melbourne CBD. 
Based on a conservative estimate of 11 sqm per office employee, this is about 60,000 sqm of demand in Sydney and about 65,000 sqm of demand in Melbourne. In a climate of reducing availability of stock, the simple law of supply and demand tells us that the result must be an increase in prices. 
Over the year to June 2017, prime grade face rents grew by 7.8 per cent in Sydney, and 14 per cent in Melbourne. 
“While these growth rates are well above ten year averages (4.7 per cent in Sydney and 4.3 per cent in Melbourne), our outlook for growth is over the next 12 months is also very strong,” says Anneke Thompson, national director at Colliers Research.
“Over the year to June 2018, we expect face rent growth of 10.3 per cent in Sydney and 13 per cent in Melbourne.
“This growth will have implications for landlords and occupiers. It is next year when we expect to see the bulk of face rent growth, before new supply begins to hit the market in 2019. Beyond that time, we see growth returning to more normalised levels, as supply and demand of office space rebalances.”
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