Economy

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GUEST OBSERVER
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The Index has now been in negative territory for the last 12 months and continues to point to below trend growth in the economy throughout 2016. 
With trend growth generally assessed as 2.75percent for Australia the Index is sending a more negative signal than both Westpac and official forecasts.
The Reserve Bank recently released its revised growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 and retained the forecasts from its February Statement on Monetary Policy at 3percent for through the year growth in both 2016 and 2017. On the other hand, the Government was a little more circumspect , broadly consistent with the signals from the Leading Index and forecasting year average growth in both 2015/16 and 2016/17 at 2.5 percent. 
Arguably, the recent sharp deterioration in the growth rate of the Leading Index (five consecutive months where the growth rate is more than 1 percentage point below trend) is likely to be pointing to a more serious below trend growth performance in 2016/17 than indicated even by the government.
<a href="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-18%20at%202.40.03%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-18%20at%202.40.03%20PM.png" alt="">
Westpac is more optimistic than the Government with forecasts of 2.9percent (2015/16) and 2.7percent (2016/17) although slightly less optimistic than the Reserve Bank with forecast growth rates of 2.8percent (through the year) in both 2016 and 2017.
To test what is driving the Leading Index to produce a more downbeat outlook than the official forecasters and Westpac it is helpful to consider the contributions to the growth rate from the various components of the Leading Index. International factors dominate with US industrial production (–0.46 percentage points) and Commodity Prices (RBA Index) (–0.31 percentage points) contributing 0.77 percentage points of the 1.08 percentage point deviation below trend.
Perhaps the official forecasters and Westpac are underestimating the importance of these international influences on Australia’s growth prospects.
Another “test” of the signals from the Index is to track the contribution to the growth rate of the Index from its components over the course of the last six months. Over that period the growth rate of the Index fell from 0.5 percentage points below trend to 1.08 percentage points below trend.
The main contributors to the fall in the growth rate were: aggregate monthly hours worked (–0.37 percentage points) Westpac MI Unemployment Expectations Index (–0.10 percentage points); Westpac MI Consumer Sentiment Expectations Index
(–0.12 percentage points); US Industrial Production (–0.19 percentage points); yield spread (–0.7 percentage points); RBA commodity prices Index (–0.06 percentage points); and dwelling approvals (–0.04 percentage points). Partially offsetting this fall was a less negative contribution of 0.36 percentage points from the ASX 200.
An overall conclusion from this analysis is that international factors have generally been the source of the underperformance of the Index but in recent months a deterioration in components associated with the labour market have contributed to further weakness.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on June 7. We were surprised that the Board decided to cut the cash rate by 0.25percent at its meeting in May. We underestimated the degree to which the staff lowered its inflation forecasts in the wake of the March quarter Inflation Report. On the basis of that Report the Bank lowered its underlying inflation forecasts for 2016 and 2017 from 2.5percent and 2.5percent respectively to 1.5percent and 2.0percent even after allowing for the rate cut. Presented with those forecast changes the Board would have had little choice but to take some action.
We expect that further action will be required at the August meeting once more information about the inflation outlook is available following the release of the June quarter Inflation Report. Indeed the Bank’s current forecasts for inflation take into account the May rate cut and market pricing which, at the time, assumed a further cut. With the 2017 forecast for underlying inflation barely reaching the bottom of the target zone (2–3percent) it is likely that a follow up move will be required.
However we do not expect that move as early as June. It will be prudent to test the current forecasts with the benefit of the June Inflation Report which will not be available until late July.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Leading Index still weak: Westpac's Bill Evans

Fixed income markets and the economy: RBA's Christopher Kent

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GUEST OBSERVER
 
Current Account: The broadest measure of the trade accounts – the current account – improved in the December quarter (smaller deficit), with the deficit falling from $10.2 billion to $3.85 billion – the smallest deficit in over 15 years.
 
Stronger trade sector: Net exports (exports less import_s) will contribute 0.2 percentage points to economic growth in the December quarter. CommSec estimates that the economy grew by 0.7 percent in the December quarter to be up 1.9 per cent over the year.
 
Consumer confidence hits 6-week high: The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 6.1 points (4.7 percent) to a 6-week high of 119.1 in the week to February 26.
 
Government sector GDP: Overall, spending by the government sector rose by 1.5 percent in the December quarter and should contribute 0.3 percentage points to December quarter economic growth.
 
Lending lifts: Private sector credit rose by 0.2 percent in January after a 0.7 percent gain in December. Investor housing finance lifted 0.6 percent in January to stand 6.6 percent higher over the year – the fastest growth in 11 months.
 
The balance of payments data has implications for trade-exposed businesses and companies vulnerable to changes in the Aussie dollar. The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses. Private sector credit figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on business spending.
 
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
 
The Australian economy may have gone backwards in the September quarter, but the result for the December quarter is likely to be the polar opposite. Based on all the components currently available, the economy looks to have grown by a healthy 0.7 percent in the December. And while forecasts do have a margin for error the strength in dwelling investment, government spending, household consumption and net exports should ensure that Australia managed to stay clear of a technical recession. More importantly it is clear that activity levels have continued to improve in the past couple of months.
 
The shift from an economic contraction to an expansion is more important for household and business confidence. And in that context the latest reading on weekly consumer confidence is encouraging. Confidence levels lifted by almost 5 percent in the past week and are now holding at 6-week highs. Interestingly the outlook on family finances was far more positive – despite the news last week on the cuts to penalty rates.
 
The latest lending (private sector credit) figures suggest a modest pullback in borrowing. But it is import_ant to point out that lending recorded the biggest lift in 15 months in December and only partially gave some of that back in January. The weakness was largely due to a modest slide in business credit which would be expected given the slowdown in financing in the post-Christmas period.
 
Interestingly home lending continues to lift, dominated by investor credit growth. In fact annual growth in investor finance is now at an 11-month high. The measures taken by regulators to curb investment lending had a temporary impact that is now fading.
 
Overall the Reserve Bank is unlikely to be surprised with the latest results. No doubt policymakers will continue to discuss key issues like housing affordability, but overall the central bank seems upbeat on the medium-term outlook for the Australian economy. CommSec expects no change to interest rates over the rest of 2017.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/%20Image%20URL%09%20%20http:/www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/1/1%20eo.jpg" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/1%20eo.jpg" width="247" height="185">
What do the figures show?
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
The broadest measure of Australia's external position - the current account – improved in the December quarter (smaller deficit), with the deficit falling from $10.2 billion to $3.85 billion.
The balance of goods and services was in deficit by $4.7 billion in the December quarter after a $3.5 billion deficit in the September quarter.
At the end of the December quarter, net foreign equity was $1.4 billion – essentially Australians own more assets overseas than foreign investors own here in Australia. But the positive net foreign equity position weakened by $5.8 billion over the December quarter.
The trade sector (exports less import_s) will contribute 0.2 percentage points to economic growth in the December quarter.
Terms of trade (ratio of export to import_ prices) rose by 9.1 cent to a 27-month high of 102.9 in the December quarter after a 2.3 percent increase in the June quarter. The terms of trade for goods rose by 11.3 percent and the terms of trade for services rose by 1.3 percent.
Net foreign debt fell from $1,048.6 billion to $1,023.1 billion as at the end of the December quarter.
GOVERNMENT FINANCES
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<li class="li3">Government consumption spending was flat in the December quarter after a 0.2 per cent fall in the September quarter. Total public investment rose by 7.7 per cent in the December quarter after falling by 7.8 per cent in the September quarter. Overall, spending by the government sector rose by 1.5 per cent in the December quarter.</li>
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CONSUMER SENTIMENT
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 6.1 points (4.7 percent) to a 6-week high of 119.1 in the week to February 26. Confidence is up 7 percent over the year and above the average of 119.1 since 2014.
All five components of the index rose in the latest week
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +2 to +11;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from at +26 to +34;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from 0 to +5;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +5 to +7;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +36 to +40:
The reading of inflation expectations two years ahead rose from 4.5 percent to 4.7 percent. Inflation expectations have now held above 4 per cent for the past 11 weeks.
PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT
Private sector credit (lending) rose by 0.2 percent in January after a 0.7 percent gain in December. Annual credit growth eased from 5.6 percent to 5.4 percent.
Housing credit grew by 0.5 percent in January to be up 6.3 percent on a year ago – equalling the December result and the slowest annual growth in 30 months.
Owner occupier housing credit rose by 0.5 percent in January to stand 6.3 percent higher than a year ago – the slowest growth in 15 months. Investor housing finance lifted 0.6 percent in January to stand 6.6 percent higher over the year – the fastest growth in 11 months.
Personal credit fell by 0.2 percent in January to be down 1.3 percent over the year – near the biggest annual decline in 4 ½ years.
Business credit fell by 0.3 percent in December after rising by a sizeable 1.1 percent in November. Business credit is 4.7 percent higher than a year ago.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/1/2%20ex%20obs.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/1/2%20ex%20obs.jpg"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/2%20ex%20obs.jpg" width="519" height="185"></a>
WHAT IS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ECONOMIC DATA?
The quarterly Balance of Payments figures have few short-term effects on financial markets. The importance of the data is merely to highlight Australia’s trading position with the rest of the world as well as the contribution of foreign trade (exports less import_s) to the latest estimates of economic growth.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the quarterly Government Finance Statistics near the start of March, June, September and December. The data details public sector consumption and investment spending and indicates the sector’s contribution to economic growth.
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INTEREST RATES AND INVESTORS?
The improvement in our broadest trade measure – the current account – is expected to continue. The mining investment boom has left us with expanded productive capacity. And exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will ramp up over the next year or so.
The ongoing strength in exports and improvement in the current account deficit will keep upward pressure on the Aussie dollar. No doubt the Reserve Bank would prefer a lower Australian dollar to help rebalance the economy away from mining to the non-mining sector.
The jobless rate is at a multi-year lows, interest rates are super-low, more homes are being built than ever before, retail spending is lifting and the farm sector prospects are bright. Even the global picture is brightening.
Interest rates will remain on hold over the rest of 2017.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/1/3%20exp%20obs.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/1/3%20exp%20obs.jpg"> </a><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/3%20exp%20obs.jpg" width="519" height="185">
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Economy set to rebound, consumers confident: Savanth Sebastian 

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68804/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Consumers are key players in the economy, they purchase goods and services, supply labour and make savings and investment decisions. Hence, their sense of what’s happening in the economy has a flow on effect.
If they feel confident, they might spend a bit extra or go into debt. If they don’t, they won’t leave their job to start a risky venture.
Surveying how consumers feel, then, can provide a useful snapshot of how an economy is faring right now, and in the near future.
<h2>The survey</h2>
The idea that consumer confidence - optimism or pessimism – is important for real activity dates back to the Great Depression and John Maynard Keynes. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – the first of its kind, was designed in 1946 to track changes in consumer confidence. 
The Australian version of the Michigan survey – the Melbourne Institute Consumer Attitudes, Sentiments and Expectations (CASiE) survey began in March 1973. The sample size comprises 1,200 households and is sorted by age, gender and state so that it is representative of the Australian population. 
The CASiE survey contains five core questions. Consumers are asked about:
<ol>
<li>their family finances compared to 12 months ago</li>
<li>their expected family finances in the next 12 months</li>
<li>expected economic conditions in the next 12 months</li>
<li>expected economic conditions in the next five years</li>
<li>whether it is good/bad time to buy major household items. </li>
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The answers are ordinal, such as “better-off”/“good”, “same”, “worse-off”/“bad” or “don’t know”. 
The responses to these five questions are used to construct five component indexes, one for each question. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is a simple average of these five component indexes. 100 is the neutral mark, a value greater than 100 indicates that optimism outweighs pessimism and vice versa. 
<h2>What the survey shows us</h2>
Since its introduction, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index has served as a reliable and timely indicator of economic activity in Australia. Swings in consumer sentiment, as displayed in this first chart, have proven valuable in signalling major turning points in the Australian business cycle such as the early 1980s and 1990s recessions.
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<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/149189/area14mp/image-20161208-31364-hnlzcu.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/149189/width754/image-20161208-31364-hnlzcu.png" alt=""></a> 
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Note: Grey areas indicate Australian recessions. Source: Melbourne Institute. Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, Author provided
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Importantly the consumer sentiment index embed both coincident and leading information about current and future real economic activity. In particular, the index relating to family finances over the previous 12 months is a timely indicator of changes in real consumption patterns. 
<h4><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/149191/area14mp/image-20161208-31405-1cufqge.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/149191/width754/image-20161208-31405-1cufqge.png" alt=""></a></h4>
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Note: Grey areas indicate Australian recessions. Source: Melbourne Institute. Smooth series are defined as 4-quarter moving averages. Index relating to Family Finances last 12 months vs Real Consumption Growth (smoothed series), Author provided
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Meanwhile, the expectations index, constructed as an average of three forward-looking components (relating to family finances over the next 12 months, economic conditions over the next 12 months and the next five years), appears to be a reliable indicator of future real activity. For example, it has consistently foreshadowed important changes in Australian labour market conditions.
<h4><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/149190/area14mp/image-20161208-31383-d1nd3g.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/149190/width754/image-20161208-31383-d1nd3g.png" alt=""></a></h4>
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Note: Grey areas indicate Australian recessions. Source: Melbourne Institute. Smooth series are defined as 4-quarter moving averages. Expectations Index vs Employment Growth (smoothed series), Author provided
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<h2>Changes</h2>
Over its long history, the CASiE survey has also evolved gradually to keep up with changes in technology and demographics. Traditional face-to-face interviews were replaced with telephone interviews in the early 1990s and online surveys have been recently introduced to complement telephone ones. 
The decreasing cost of internet usage and the increasing influence of personal mobile devices, such as smartphones and tablets, appear to have improved the flow of information. With easier and faster access to news, consumers appear to be more informed about current affairs. 
The average proportion of interviewees replying “don’t know” to the five survey questions used to be around 9% during the 1990s and through to the mid-2000s. This proportion, however, has declined gradually since the introduction of smartphones in 2007 and recently has plateaued to around 3%. 
<h4><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/149192/area14mp/image-20161208-31367-39fkok.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/149192/width754/image-20161208-31367-39fkok.png" alt=""></a></h4>
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Note: Vertical lines indicate Australian Federal Elections. Source: Melbourne Institute. Trend series is computed using Hodrick-Prescott filter. Proportion of ‘Don’t Know’ Respondents, Author provided
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In the future, new innovations and advances in information technology will likely help reduce the cost even more. But increasing the frequency of surveys may not be beneficial as they will likely capture more randomness. Research about how people form expectations suggests consumers tend to update their expectations every six to twelve months and most consumers’ current and future family financial conditions are unlikely to change on a weekly or daily basis. 
Over the years, the consumer sentiment index has attracted the attention of policy makers, market economists and academics, mainly because it is a useful signal about future household consumption and saving. Since the household sector is the largest sector in the economy, it is no wonder the Index receives a lot of attention as large swings in consumer confidence are often followed by large swings in real activity.
Viet Nguyen is senior research fellow in Applied Macroeconomics, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/viet-nguyen-265801" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Why and how do we measure what consumers feel?

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s economy increased 0.8% in the June quarter, according to seasonally adjusted, chain volume measures released Wednesday. 
This brings annual GDP growth to 1.8% at the end of June. 
The results reinforce Australia as ‘the lucky country’, as we enter the 104th consecutive quarter without recession.
But aggregate growth figures mask one of the longest declines in private sector, gross capital formation in Australia’s history. Gross capital formation refers to spending on fixed assets and inventories such as land improvements, buildings, machines and equipment.  
In 2012, a demand shock from China drastically reduced the value of Australian commodity exports. The decline of the mining sector bled into secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy, and by 2014, annual growth in private sector capital formation was negative. It has remained negative since. 
Graph 1 shows the rolling annual growth rate of different economic components. This is not the first time private sector capital formation has fallen in value against household and government expenditure – 2001 saw one of the largest private sector contractions at -11%. However, we are currently in the longest period of private capital formation decline on record, with the rolling annual growth rate declining 13 quarters in a row.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-27%20at%208.45.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-27%20at%208.45.03%20AM.png" alt="">
Some of the largest declines in the latest GDP figures were seen in non-residential construction. In the June quarter, privately funded investment in the construction of engineering projects, commercial buildings and other non-residential builds contracted -7.7% in the quarter, contributing -0.4% to total GDP growth. 
Graph 2 shows that nationally, even as private residential building has soared, this has not offset overall losses in private sector capital formation. As the dwelling construction boom eases, recovery in private capital formation may be even slower. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-27%20at%208.45.03%20AM.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-27%20at%208.46.06%20AM.png" alt="">
The good news is that is that Graph 1 also shows that private investment appears to have reached a trough of -5% annual growth in December 2016. The upturn has been driven by competitive agricultural products, investment in intellectual property products and machinery and equipment investment. 
So how has Australia remained the lucky country in a climate of low private investment? The main growth driver is household expenditure, which rose 0.7% in the quarter. The trouble with aggregate indicators in household expenditure is that it does not always reveal the squeeze on household funds. The household savings ratio has sunk to its lowest level since 2008 at 4.6%. This suggests that households are using their savings to keep up with rising costs of living, which is one of the only explanations for increased consumption in a period of low wage growth. 
Government expenditure is also working to offset economic decline. In particular, the state governments of New South Wales and Victoria – enabled through high property tax revenue and asset sales - are rapidly increasing expenditure. The latest GDP figures suggest that state and local government expenditure increased 25.5% in the June quarter. 
The main projects being funded are large scale transport infrastructure and school and hospital upgrades. These have the benefit of offsetting job losses in the private sector, while improving commute times and learning facilities to increase economic capacity in the long term. According to Cordell construction data, government funded projects accounted for 44% of the value of construction work commencing across Australia last year. 
Much like the mining boom, the enormous east-coast housing boom and asset sales are likely once-in-a-life-time events. Another economic shock, such as accelerated house price declines, could see limited government funding for continued infrastructure investment. For Australia’s luck to continue, private sector investment needs to make a recovery before the public sector runs short on revenue.
Eliza Owen is Commerical Property Research Analyst with ‎CoreLogic and can be contacted <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Household and government spending mask the weakness in our private sector: Eliza Owen

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Energy and resources minister Josh Frydenberg said recently that the latest employment figures show extremely strong job growth, the greatest Australia's had since 2006. Is that right?
With shakes in the global stock market and uncertainty abroad, politicians are understandably keen to reassure voters that Australia’s economic fundamentals are strong.
Employment data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is one way we can test Australia’s economic waters, and resources and energy minister Josh Frydenberg said recently that the latest employment figures show extremely strong job growth.
Is he right?
Checking the numbers
The ABS' December Labour Force survey release showed that over the course of 2015, total employment was up by 301,300 people (adjusted for regular seasonal fluctuations and rounded to closest 100 people). Of those 301,300 jobs, the majority (187,200) were full time.
In the last three months of 2015, growth compared to same time the previous year has fluctuated between 2.6% and 3%. That’s above the average annual growth in employment since 2000 of around 1.9%. In short, employment growth recently has been strong.
Is it the greatest level of job growth since 2006?
Table 1 of the release shows that this growth is indeed the strongest of any calendar year since 2006.
However, one could also look at changes over the 12 months to any month. Doing that, you could say, for example, that November 2010 with a figure of around 314,300 had a stronger level of job growth than the latest employment figure show. It was also stronger in November of 2015, when it was at about 344,900.
In other words, if you look only at changes for calendar years (between the beginning and the end of any given year), Frydenberg is right to say it’s the greatest level of job growth since 200
<a href="/images/2016/01/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-25%20at%209.55.00%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-25%20at%209.55.00%20AM.png" alt="" width="844" height="620">
That said, comparing the recent data to particular points in the past is less important than what the data tell us about the current trends in the labour market.
<h2>Trends</h2>
While the ABS devotes considerable resources to undertaking the survey, it is worth remembering that published employment growth is an estimate. The survey is only a sample of the population. The ABS reports on page 40 of its release that the standard error of monthly employment growth is 29,300 people, so, while employment growth recently has been strong, considerable uncertainty surrounds the numbers.
More generally, monthly movements in these data are volatile. For example, in December employment actually fell marginally, although this followed two months of strong growth and therefore was still a good outcome.
Due to this volatility in the monthly series, the ABS' trend series may provide a better guide about the extent to which recent growth is likely to persist in the future.
Over the last three months of 2015, growth in trend employment averaged around 30,300 people, compared to 43,000 based on the data adjusted only for regular seasonal fluctuations.
In other words, the data show us that the underlying trends in the job market recently have been pretty good.
Other, unofficial, data point to an improvement in the labour market. The December 2015 ANZ Job Advertisement Index showed growth compared to the same time in 2014 in their trend estimate at 11.4%, compared to around 10% in the middle of 2015.
<h2>The unemployment rate</h2>
The unemployment rate, which is also produced by the ABS in the labour force survey, has improved over the last three months. At <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">5.8%</a>, it is down from 6.2%, where it had fluctuated around since mid 2014 (see Table 1 of the release). Similarly, the trend unemployment rate has also improved and in December reached 5.8%.
<a href="/images/2016/01/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-25%20at%209.59.59%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-25%20at%209.59.59%20AM.png" alt="" width="742" height="490">
Is 5.8% a good outcome for the unemployment rate? A simple benchmark is that average unemployment in Australia since 2000 is 5.5% – so it’s still currently a little above average.
Another way to judge the level of the unemployment rate is to look at developments in wages. If the unemployment rate was too low, growth in private sector wages would pick up. However, in the September quarter (which predates the recent drop in the unemployment rate) wages growth was soft.
To put Australian unemployment in a global context, the average unemployment rate of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations was 6.6% in November 2015. However, we need to caveat this comparison. Many countries, such as some in Europe, have unemployment rates that are, on average, higher than Australia’s, reflecting the different structure of their labour markets.
Australia’s unemployment rate has shifted down and that has persisted for three months, which gives greater confidence that it might not be temporary. However, given the volatility of these data and the uncertainty presently surrounding the outlook for the global economy it will be important to see whether these gains are maintained in coming months.
<h2>Verdict</h2>
Josh Frydenberg was right. Employment growth in 2015 was the strongest of any calendar year since 2006, although comparable growth also occurred over the 12 months to November 2010. It is also fair to say Australia has recently experienced strong jobs growth.
Review
This FactCheck is excellent in its comprehensive review and interpretation of the Labour Force Survey data. It is pointed out that labour market statistics, such as the unemployment rate and the number of people employed, are only estimates not the actual numbers in the population.
The statistics are based on the Labour Force Survey, which is a sample of 0.33% of the population about the employment status of everyone in the household aged 15 years and older. Because they are based on a sample of the population, the statistics have errors. In its monthly report the ABS publishes these “sampling errors” and clearly says that the estimate of the monthly change in the employment has a “95% confidence interval”. The media and the government rarely, if ever, report the range of estimates.
It is well known among economists that “you don’t trust one month’s figures” – the trend in labour force statistics is what’s important in understanding what’s going on in the labour market.
This FactCheck does a good job of explaining that the ABS “trend estimates” are much more reliable than the actual raw estimates. Again, the media (and politicians, when it suits them) tend to concentrate on the actual number, particularly whether it has risen or fallen. As the author also pointed out, the start and end date of the change usually makes a difference to the estimate of the change.
As the above states, although the minister’s assertion can be questioned somewhat by adopting a different start and end date, the overall conclusion that jobs growth is reasonably strong is correct. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-robinson-138270" rel="author" style="line-height: 1.3em;"></a>
 
Tim Robinson is research fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-robinson-138270" target="_blank">here</a>.
Phil Lewis is professor of economics, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/phil-lewis-8714" target="_blank">here</a>.
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FactCheck: is job growth in Australia the greatest it’s been since 2006?

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The headline growth figures certainly look a bit on the soft side. But the breakdown of the growth components provides a much more interesting picture. 
Government consumption provided the biggest contribution to growth while household consumption held up relatively well. The biggest drag was net exports which detracted 0.6 percentage points from growth. In addition the drawdown in inventories also crimped growth by 0.2 percentage points. Overall, not an “ideal” mix of growth drivers, but close enough for this point in the cycle. 
The good news is that productivity is still rising while wage costs are falling and price pressures are restrained.
The economic growth figures are largely important as an historical record. But the data can’t tell us much about the here and now. And certainly the figures have limited use in telling us where the economy is going. But for the Reserve Bank the data serves as a base for its forecasts. It’s a case of ticking the figures off to ensure that there are no surprises. 
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<div class="column">Overall the data confirms that growth over the past year has been below trend but “ok” for an economy that is going through a generational transition. Despite all the doom and gloom about the winding back of mining investment, fiscal contraction and horror stories about the collapse of the manufacturing sector it is pretty clear that the economy is in reasonable shape – certainly in better shape than most other so-called “advanced” economies.</div>
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 While media commentary is likely to focus on the fact that growth is a touch on the soft side the key point is that Australia has completed 24 consecutive years of growth. It is an achievement to be celebrated. And interestingly the drawdown in inventories in the quarter may be as a result of the lift in domestic demand, and it does mean that businesses will be re-stocking shelves in coming quarters – supporting the overall growth figures.
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 Looking forward growth will continue to remain mixed over the next few months. The transition from mining to housing-led investment continues to be the dominant driver of activity. Although somewhat encouragingly the ongoing lift in consumer and business confidence is now translating through to a lift in risk appetite and investment plans.
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 CommSec tips the economy to grow by 2.75-3.00% over the coming year. CommSec believes that given the ongoing below trend growth outcomes, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to lift interest rates over the next year. 
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<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
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 National Accounts:
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 Economic Growth: The economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.9 per cent increase in the March quarter.
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The economy has grown 2.0 per cent over the past year, below the decade-average growth rate of 2.8 per cent and below the 15-year average of 2.9 per cent. In 2014/15, the economy grew by 2.4 per cent.
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 The non-farm economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.9 per cent lift in the March quarter. Annual growth stands at 1.9 per cent.
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Farm GDP fell by 2.6 per cent in the June quarter after rising by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter. Farm GDP rose 4.1 per cent over the year.
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At current prices, GDP rose by 0.3 per cent in the quarter to be up by 1.6 per cent over the year. The annual growth rate is well below the decade average of 6.2 per cent. Over the year to June 2015, the Australian economy was valued at $1,612 billion.
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Growth drivers: The biggest contributions to growth came from government consumption (+0.4 percentage points), followed by household consumption expenditure (+0.3pp), and public investment (+0.2pp). The biggest drag on growth was net exports (exports less imports) (-0.6 percentage points), inventories (-0.2pp) and dwelling investment (-0.1pp).
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 Inflation: In terms of domestic price pressures, the household consumption implicit price deflator rose 0.7 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.3 per cent lift in the March quarter. Annual growth stands at just 1.4 per cent. Real non-farm unit labour costs rose by 1.1 per cent in the June quarter after falling by 0.6 per cent in the March quarter. Real non-farm unit labour costs rose by just 0.9 per cent over the year. 
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Productivity: Gross value added per hours worked in the market sector rose 0.4 per cent in the June quarter after 0.3 per cent growth in the March quarter. Annual growth stands at 0.8 per cent. Hours worked in the market sector were up 0.3 per cent in the quarter to be up 1.7 per cent for the year.
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States &amp; Territories: The best description of the performance of States and Territory economies is state final demand plus net exports. The ACT had the fastest annual growth rate in the June quarter (up 5.4 per cent), followed by Victoria (up 2.9 per cent), NSW (up 2.4 per cent), South Australia (up 0.7 per cent) and Tasmania 
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<div class="column">(up 0.5 per cent). The Northern Territory contracted by 11.4 per cent followed by Western Australia (down 2.4 per cent) and Queensland (down 0.8 per cent).</div>
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Consumer spending lifts. Household spending rose by 0.5 per cent in the June quarter to be up 2.5 per cent for the year. Only five of the 17 sectors recorded weaker spending in the quarter. Spending on Health rose by 2.5 per cent followed by Communications (up 1.9 per cent). But spending fell in Cigarettes &amp; tobacco and Alcoholic beverages (both down 2.2 per cent) and Electricity, gas and fuel (down by 2.0 per cent).
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 Industry sectors: Thirteen of the 19 industry sectors expanded in the June quarter. Rental, hiring and real estate services grew by 2.7 per cent, contributing 0.1 percentage points (pp) to growth in the quarter. Five other sectors contributed 0.1 percentage points to growth. The weakest sectors were Mining (down 3.0 per cent and removing 0.3pp from growth) and Agriculture, forestry and fishing (down 2.3 per cent).
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 Other points:
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Profit share falls. In seasonally adjusted terms, the ratio of profits to total factor income fell from 26.3 to 25.4 per cent in the June quarter. The wages share rose from 53.0 per cent to 53.4 per cent.
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 Household savings ratio rose. The household saving ratio lifted from 8.3 per cent to 8.8 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in the June quarter. In trend terms household saving held steady at 8.6 per cent in the quarter.
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 Imports ease as a share of spending. The imports to sales ratio fell from 0.394 in the March quarter to 0.392 in the June quarter.
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<div class="column">The inventory to sales ratio rose from 0.627 in the March quarter to 0.643 in the June quarter. </div>
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The quarterly National Income, Expenditure and Product release (national accounts) from the Bureau of Statistics is the most complete assessment of Australia’s economic performance. Detailed estimates are provided on incomes (wages, profits), spending (such as household, dwelling investment and trade (exports and imports) and production (comparing industry performance). Other data includes household saving and the economic performance of States and Territories.
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<div class="column">The main use of the national accounts figures is as a historical record of economic performance. The information has little forward-looking value for currency, interest rate or share markets.</div>
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 What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
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 The national accounts data is backward looking. But the data is taken into account by the Reserve Bank, serving as a base for forecasts. The Reserve Bank uses six-month annualised growth figures to ascertain how the economy is travelling. And in that context growth looks more robust annualising at around 2.2 per cent.
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 Importantly business confidence and conditions remain healthy and should support a lift in activity over the latter part of 2015.
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 At present there is no rush to lift or cut interest rates although the risks lie with another rate cut given the patchiness in the economy. CommSec believes interest rates will remain unchanged over the rest of 2015. 
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<div class="column">Savanth Sebastian is an economist for CommSec. You can follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/commsec" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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Australia's 24th consecutive year of growth: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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GUEST OBSERVER
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Today’s super‑sized 58.6k rise in jobs was well above market expectations which were centred on a rise of 15k (CBA f/c +20k). To keep it in perspective, there is a pattern that the last few episodes of monthly falls in jobs have been followed by very large rises. It is likely that the next few monthly outcomes are lowish and will bring the three month average back to 17k.
Full‑time jobs growth of 40k in October means that annual growth is 159k or 2%. Part‑time jobs rose by 18.6k to be 104k, or 2.9%, higher over the past year.
The unemployment rate fell to 5.9%, the lowest since May, from 6.2%. We expect to see the unemployment rate oscillate around the 6% level over the next 6 months.
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Forward indicators of the jobs market, such as job ads and employer intentions, indicate that monthly average jobs growth should be in the 17 to 20k range, or 200k annually. It implies that the national unemployment rate will stay around the 6% level, depending on the wobbles in the participation rate.
Over the past 3 years around 277k extra jobs have been added to the workforce, with about two thirds of those in part‑time positions. The new jobs are a net outcome of significantly higher job gains netted off against large job losses. The chart on the next page shows the restructuring across sectors.
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<img src="/images/2015/11/12/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-12%20at%203.23.57%20PM.png" alt="">
The extra jobs over the past 3 years are in health, construction, retail, education and transport. They can be generally grouped as services sector positions, which also tend to have a greater part‑time component. The lower AUD will hasten the jobs growth in sectors like tourism, accommodation and education over the coming year. It will more than offset the losses in the mining and related sectors.
There is also a clear economic growth transition going on in the States.  VIC and NSW recorded the largest increase in jobs growth (+26.1K and +18.7K respectively). 
The NSW unemployment rate, at 5.5% is now sitting at the lowest level across the States. It is followed closely by VIC at 5.6%. The residential construction boom, focussed in these two States, is one of the key drivers of employment growth.  The mining states also recorded good outcomes in October with QLD up 12.1K and WA up 14.8K.  SA jobs rose by 5.6K and jobs fell by 1.4K in TAS.
The next major economic release is the September quarter Capex which will be examined to see if there is any small improvement in the outlook for non‑mining investment. Next week’s RBA minutes are likely to show that the Board discussed a rate cut at the November meeting which could weaken the AUD.
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<img src="/images/2015/11/12/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-12%20at%203.25.45%20PM.png" alt="" width="379" height="70">
 
Michael Workman is senior economist, <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/corporate/research?ei=mv_research" target="_blank">Commonwealth Bank</a>.
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Who needs a rate cut? CBA's Michael Workman

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 2.2 percent in March from 101.3 in February to 99.1 in March.
The Index is back to around its average reading over the last six months. Following the change of leadership of the Federal Government in September the Index lifted by 8.3% over the subsequent two months. It has broadly held those gains with today’s reading off that high in November by 2.5% although we are now slightly back in the region where pessimists outnumber optimists.
Financial markets have maintained significant volatility since the last survey while finishing the month on an encouraging high.
However, responses to additional questions on ‘news items recalled’ indicate that consumers were generally less focussed on international events than in December. The proportion of respondents who reported recalling news on ‘international conditions’ fell from 20.0% in December to 15.5% in March although perceptions of this news remained highly unfavourable.
The highest levels of news recall were for items on ‘budget and taxation’ ( 37.1%) and ‘domestic economic conditions’(36.7%). Perceptions of both topics were less unfavourable in March than in December. Respondents registered low recall rates on new on ‘interest rates’, ‘employment’ and ‘inflation’ although again perceptions were significantly less unfavourable than in December.
However, the market volatility and unfavourable media coverage on property markets appears to have triggered a reassessment of risk preferences. When we asked consumers about the ‘wisest place for savings’ there was a much higher proportion nominating ‘pay down debt’ – 24.4% in March compared to 17.8% in December – with this month’s reading the highest since December 2011( 26.6%) when the European Financial Crisis was in full swing. This move to more risk averse preferences also saw a 4.5 percentage point increase in the proportion of respondents who favoured fixed interest investments, including bank deposits with significant reductions in the proportion nominating real estate (down to 14.7% from 23.4% in December ) and shares (down from 9.9% in December to 7.6% in March).
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations increased by 1.3% from 145.3 in February to 147.3 in March. This measures respondents’ assessments of the outlook for the unemployment rate so an increase indicates reduced confidence in the employment outlook. The measure is still 5.8% below its print in September but has steadily lifted (up 9.2%) from the low in October (134.9). However labour market expectations are still considerably less negative today than they were through most of 2014 and 2015.
Three of the five components of the Index fell in March. One of the two components assessing family finances – ‘family finances compared to a year ago’ – declined 8.2%. The Reserve Bank has indicated that it favours this component as a reliable indicator
of spending intentions. As such, it would be of some concern that this component, which unlike the overall Index did not lift significantly following last year’s leadership change, is now down 5.9 percent from a year ago, a considerably weaker read than the 0.4 percent decline in the overall Index. The prudent approach to this sharp move will be to assess the degree to which it is sustained over future months.
The other family finances component – ‘family finances over the next 12 months’ – increased by 0.2 percent. The components measuring the views on the economic outlook sent conflicting messages – ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ increased by 8.2 percent while ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ fell by 2.5 percent.
The final component, ‘time to buy a major household item’ – fell by 6.6 percent to be 2.5 percent below its level from a year ago.
 
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While there was a sharp deterioration in respondents’ views on real estate as a wise investment relative to December, assessments of ‘time to buy a dwelling’ suggest broader buyer sentiment may be stabilising. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index increased by 5.4 percent from 99.3 in February to 104.7 in March. 
This Index is now 3.0 percent above its level in September but still 13.1 percent below its level of a year ago. The divergence between this index and views on real estate as an investment may reflect uncertainty around potential changes to taxation policy affecting negative gearing. Notably, the state detail on ‘time to buy a dwelling’ shows buyer sentiment in NSW – the weakest state – is now 44 percent above its September low although it is still 19 percent below its level from a year ago. 
This stability is also indicated by the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations. The Index lifted by 9.8% in March to be 16.6% higher than its level in December although still 18.4% below its level from a year ago. 
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The Reserve Bank Board next meets on April 5. As we have been successfully arguing since June last year that we expect the Bank will keep rates on hold through 2016. Clear issues for the Bank will be the progress towards stability in the labour market and the value of the Australian dollar. 
Recent dollar strength has been associated with a more positive outlook for China and commodity prices and as such would not be grounds for a policy adjustment. 
Equally, while most indicators, including our own, one of which is quoted in this survey, point to an overall improvement in the labour market over the last six months, actual jobs growth appears to be running ahead of those indicators. The recent lift in the recorded unemployment rate to 6.0% seems consistent with that observation. 
Given the recent GDP report showing Australia grew by a relatively impressive 3% in 2015, the current unemployment rate is a long way short of a print that would prompt a policy response from the Bank. 
We expect growth in the Australian economy of 2.8% in 2016 with the genuine prospect for some stability in our terms of trade through the year laying a foundation for a lift in incomes and spending going into 2017.
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment shows modest March fall: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Once upon a time, chicken was a luxury few could regularly afford. It was a rare meal reserved for special occasions.
Yet since 1965 the per-capita annual consumption of chicken meat in Australia has increased ten-fold from 4.6 kilograms per person in 1965 to 44.6 kilograms in 2012.
The retail price of chicken per kilogram has decreased steadily in real terms from around A$9.67 in 1986 to A$5.67 in 2009. The arrival of Kentucky Fried Chicken in Australia in 1968 coincided with rapid increases in consumption. Today, Australians consume more than 600 million chickens per year.
The vast majority is produced in intensive “broiler” farms. How does chicken production and consumption on such a scale affect the foodbowls on the outskirts of our cities?
Intensive chicken farms need to be within about one hour of processing sites. Farms also need to be close to feed supplies and hatcheries, as they are run as highly integrated systems.
Partly because of this, the chicken meat industry in Victoria is concentrated within about 200 kilometres of Melbourne. Similar patterns occur in other Australian regions.
As the industry has sought efficiencies of scale, the size of farms has increased. Whereas farms of the 1970s might have housed 10,000 chickens, they now routinely hold 80,000 to more than one million chickens, producing five batches of chickens per year. Yet as producers have grown, the numbers of suitable urban fringe spaces – close enough to processing plants, but far enough from neighbours and sensitive land uses – are dwindling.
One reason is the growth in popularity of peri-urban areas to live in. “Counter-urbanisation” or “tree-changing” has been underway since the 1970s. Whether in Germany, the US or the Netherlands, it seems rural and peri-urban residents have little desire to live near a “monster chicken factory”.
In a recent paper we analysed 59 planning appeals related to broiler farms in Victoria between 1969 and 2013. Concerns about the farms have included odour, noise, dust, vermin, truck traffic, impacts on tourism, and water use and pollution.
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/image-20160224-16425-1lijx2i.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/image-20160224-16425-1lijx2i.jpg" alt="">
Broiler farm planning disputes appear to channel more intractable issues than odour control. It is possible that, on some level, having one million chickens not smell is unsettling in its own way.
As more chicken meat is produced, and in ever more technologically intensive ways, conflicts over farm applications inevitably unlock community disquiet about factory farming. The allowable forum for legitimate opposition, however, is narrow.
Intensive farming is often simply inconsistent with community expectations. The “unknowns” of industrialised agriculture are normally hidden from view in bucolic images on food packaging, and in the marketing of rural real estate as a “lifestyle” choice. Responses to the reality of broiler proposals – however technically well planned – sometimes seem rooted in the loss of this comforting, romanticised view.
In Victoria, the solution has been to regulate away the noise, smell and dust of a farm, mandate separation distances and even set aside areas with clear “rights to farm” and those with rights to “the good life”. The recent announcement of an inquiry in Victoria into the industry has a strong focus on resolving conflicts through siting and separation.
Yet the use of such an approach in Victoria has raised concerns about creating “sterilised” regions where no uses but industrial farms are permitted. Opponents to industrial farms also express concerns that proponents exploit loopholes and that a codified buffer distance privileges intensive farms rather than resolving conflicting land use issues.
On the other hand, less control arguably generates more conflict, as in parts of Canada and Texas. There, industrial, corporate-run farming operations dominate vast, generally lower socioeconomic areas. But as farms expand, divisive neighbourhood battles are still fought out.
Our research indicates that the use of buffer spaces around farms, guidelines and rights can achieve only so much. Despite the presence of clear guidelines, a recent proposal for a 1.2 million-bird farm in Baringhup, near Castlemaine, has led to more than two years of planning dispute and may result in Supreme Court action.
Conflicts between opponents and proponents of intensive farming will continue in rural areas. Fanning the flames is the growing demand for low-priced chicken (and an ongoing chicken nugget price “war”).
Local governments and decision-makers in Australia remain under-resourced to deal with opposition to the increasing scale of broiler farms. By advocating for a new understanding of what a rural and an urban area “means”, planning is at the coal face for negotiating politically acceptable outcomes to such conflicts. Yet a look at the images used to market farm products reveals what an uphill struggle this is.
 
Elizabeth Taylor is vice chancellor's Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, RMIT University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/elizabeth-taylor-97922" target="_blank">here</a>.
Andrew Butt is senior lecturer in Community Planning and Development, La Trobe University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-butt-229215" target="_blank">here</a>.
Marco Amati is associate professor of International Planning, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marco-amati-209638" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation
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