Hobart

The Melbourne-based developer Bensons Property Group has purchased a Battery Point development site.

It intends to build a $50 million apartment project with a penthouse with $10 million sale prospects.

Close to Sullivan&rsquo;s Cove, the boutique project is set to be 30 apartments with a $1 million staring price.

The site cost about $7 million through Knight Frank with The Australian reporting the move was driven by the company&rsquo;s &shy;chairman and founder Elias Jreissati and wife Colleen, who want to add to the company&rsquo;s luxury interstate projects.

Completion is expected in late 2023.

Bensons chief executive Rick Curtis said they will work closely with Hobart City Council and the local community on revised plans for the site.

It spans 1442 sqm on the corner of Knopwood St and Montpelier Retreat.

The approved DA allows for the construction of 30 luxury apartments, basement carparking for 46 cars.

The site set 200m from the Salamanca Place and Hobart waterfront was offered with a short term lease to Care Park.

The Jreissati family have owned a Hobart apartment for more than five years in Battery Point.

The Jreissati family supports the arts in Hobart.

The site will include a public open space embedded with art created by Tasmanian artists.

Bensons Property Group is set to create the first high-rise residential tower on Chevron Island, minutes from the beaches of Surfers Paradise.

Its Chevron One project will form part of the new arts and cultural precinct for the Gold Coast.

Melbourne-based developer Bensons Property Group has snapped up the development site close to Sullivan’s Cove

jchancellor

$10m Hobart penthouse in Bensons Property Group project

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Apartment vendors across the major capital cities have been securing close to their asking prices, according to CoreLogic

The latest data shows that Canberra is the apartment market where vendors do not need to discount their asking prices by that much.

The median required discount in Canberra is 1.7 percent.

Across the other capital cities there is a prospect that apartment vendors require to adjust their asking prices by between 2.2 percent to 2.6 percent in order to secure a sale.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2772]

Hobart is the fastest selling city for both apartments and houses.

<img alt="" height="458" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/cl_2021_apt_vendors.jpg" width="643">

House vendors are a little more ambitious in their asking prices with the required discount needing to be offered to buyers sitting in the range of 2.2 percent to 3 percent.
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Apartment vendors across the major capital cities have been securing close to their asking prices, according to CoreLogic

Apartment vendors selling at close to asking prices: CoreLogic

<html><body>The city of Hobart has again seen a very high rate of profit making sales with 97.2% of resales making money for their vendors in the last quester of 2020.

The rate of profit making sales increased further over the December quarter, up from 96% in the three months to September, the CoreLogic pain and gain report noted.

The lowest typical hold period associated with a profit making sales across the nation was across regional Tasmanian units, where the median hold period on a profit-making sale was just 6.7 years.

The report noted that in the 6.7 years to December 2020, regional Tasmania unit values increased around 40%, compared to an increase in unit values across the Australia-wide market of approximately 7%.

Hobart continued as the most profitable capital city across Australia in terms of the portion of resales with 97.2% of observed resales making a nominal gain in the December 2020 quarter, up from 96.7% in the three months to September.

Hobart houses saw a slightly higher rate of profit making sales (97%) than units (95.2%) in the December quarter. 

It was 97.7% in the rest of Tasmania for houses and 96.2% for rest of Tasmania units. 

"Interestingly, the rate of profit making unit sales increased 80 basis points in the quarter while the portion of unit profit making sales actually declined 80 basis points," the report noted.

Each local government area of Hobart saw a high level of profitability in the December quarter, ranging from 93.3% across Sorrell, to 98.3% across Brighton. 

Hobart has seen a renewed surge in values off the back of the cash rate reduction in November, and will likely see continued increases in profitability through the March 2021 quarter, CoreLogic forecast.

Eliza Owen, Core Logic’s Head of Research noted the lowest incidence of profit making sales across the capital cities was across Darwin, where 51.4% of properties sold for a loss.</body></html>

The city of Hobart once again saw the highest rate of profit making sales at 97%. 

Hobart and regional Tasmania units are selling quick and at big profits

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GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 0.5 percent in February after a 0.9 percent lift in January. Home prices were up by 7.6 per cent over the year to February.
Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in February.
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 2 points to 53.5 in February – a near six year high. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. Production, new orders and exports lifted in February
The economic data continues to surprise on a positive note. The manufacturing sector is now expanding at the fast pace in almost six years. And when it comes to home prices it is a case of modest strength – but more encouragingly price growth is more spread out and not just Sydney and Melbourne centric.
Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities. But the lift in home prices in Hobart, Adelaide and Brisbane was the icing on the cake. In fact home prices in Hobart have now lifted by 8.5 per cent in the past three months. It seems investors and home buyers are shifting away from the traditional growth markets of Sydney and
Melbourne and looking for more attractively-priced property in other cities.
It is still early days but the perfect outcome would be if the majority of regional areas recorded a lift in dwelling values. The “Rest of State” price index lifted by 0.6 per cent in February, although annual growth is still subdued at 2.2 per cent. This highlights the issues facing policymakers in attempting to manage a very diverse housing market. What we would expect to see is the lift in capital city house prices continues to filter out across the regional towns over the next 12-24 months.
The consolidation in home prices is unlikely to see home building dry up. There is a record pipeline of dwelling approvals that suggest a lot of building work will take place over the next two years - supportive of a lift in activity levels over the medium term.
The rebalancing effect across the economy continues to take place. Manufacturing activity has now expanded for eight consecutive months – marking the longest streak in ten years. More importantly the sub-indices like, production, new orders and exports, are showing a credible lift. No doubt the weaker Australian dollar will continue to support the sector. In addition low resource prices – particularly for oil - are keeping down input costs and also providing a boost to the sector.
<a href="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.50.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.50.38%20AM.png" alt="" width="814" height="591">
The latest data should ensure that the Reserve Bank continues to remain on the interest rate sidelines. If a rate cut was to take place it would be as a result of a downturn in the global economy rather than domestic economic conditions.
What do the figures show?
Home prices
The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value index of capital city home prices rose by 0.5 percent in February after a 0.9 per cent lift in January. Home prices were up by 7.6 per cent over the year to February.
House prices rose by 0.6 percent in February while apartment prices fell by 0.1 percent. House prices were up 7.8 percent on a year ago and apartments were up by 6.2 percent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $572,000 and the average unit price was $480,000.
Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in February: Hobart (up 2.9 percent), Adelaide (up 1.9 percent, Brisbane (up 0.8 percent), Sydney (up 0.5 percent), Darwin (up 0.4 percent) and Melbourne (up 0.3 percent). Prices fell most in Perth (down 1.1 percent), followed by Canberra (down 0.2 percent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Melbourne (up 11.1 percent), followed by Sydney (up 9.5 percent), Hobart (up 6.2 percent), Brisbane (up 5.5 percent), Canberra (up 4.5 percent) and Adelaide (up 2.8 percent). Prices fell in Perth (down 3.1 percent), and Darwin (down 2.9 percent).
Total returns on capital city dwellings in the year to February rose by 11.5 per cent with houses up 11.6 percent on a year earlier and units up 10.9 per cent.
 Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 2 points to 53.5 in February – its highest level since July 2010.
AIG notes “February was the eighth consecutive month in which the Australian PMI has been above 50 points (net expansion). This is the longest continuous run of expansion since 2006.”
Across the sub-indices; production (60.1 points), new orders (52.4 points), stocks (52.5 points), deliveries (53.5 points) exports (53.7 points) and sales (53.0 points) were positive in February. Employment (47.4 points), remained in contraction.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic-RP Data Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
The Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers compile the  Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Sydney and Melbourne drove the gains in home prices in 2015. But the two largest cities are likely to come back to the pack over 2016. Overall, we expect returns on home prices across Australia to lift by around 7 per cent in 2016. CommSec expects no change to rates over 2016.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Regional towns to get boost, as Hobart leads higher home prices: Savanth Sebastian

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Hobart and regional Victoria profit most, shows latest CoreLogic Pain and Gain report

CoreLogic’s Pain and Gain report for the September 2020 quarter released today has revealed Hobart retained its position as the capital city with the highest rate of profit making resales at 96.6%, while regional Victoria was the most profitable ‘rest of state’ region with 97.5% of dwellings sold for a profit in the three months to September.

Nationally, the proportion of resales that made a profit was 88.1% or $24.8 billion in profits, up from 87.2% or $19.8 billion in the June 2020 quarter. However, the amount of losses also deepened on non-profitable sales, from -$885 million in the June quarter to -$1.2 billion in September.

The Pain and Gain analysis for the September quarter reflects the resilience seen in the property market throughout 2020.

Each of the greater capital city markets, with the exception of Melbourne, saw an increase in the rate of profit making sales over the September quarter. The highest rate of profit making sales was across Hobart, which has been the case since March 2018.

Coastal regional markets were also particularly profitable for sellers, with profit making sales representing over 95% of resales across six major coastal markets: Geelong, Illawarra, the Mid North Coast, the Newcastle Lake Macquarie region, the Richmond Tweed region and the Sunshine Coast. The Sunshine Coast hit a record high rate of profit making sales in the September quarter at 96.4%.

Comparing the capital cities to regional Australia, the portion of profit-making sales increased more rapidly across the regions than capitals.

The combined regional Australian market saw the rate of profit making sales increase 150 basis points, to 89.2% in the September quarter, while the rate of profitability across capital city markets expanded 30 basis points, to 87.2%. This also reflects the divergent performance between regional and capital city real estate markets through 2020.

Houses vs Units

The report also demonstrates that there was generally a higher rate of return for houses ($225,000) than units ($125,000).

Profitability across both houses and units rose across Australia in the September 2020 quarter. The portion of properties sold at a loss among houses fell from 10.2% in the three months to June to 9.6%, while the portion of loss making unit sales fell from 21.4% to 19.6%.

The differential between house and unit profitability narrowed to 10 percentage points in the September quarter, down from 11.2 percentage points in the three months to June. The narrowed differential was a result of unit profitability rising faster than that of houses. Even though the rate of loss making sales declined faster across the unit segment, units were still about 2 times more likely to sell for a loss than houses in the September quarter.

Investors vs Owner Occupiers

A higher portion of property investors sold their dwelling at a loss during the September quarter compared with owner occupiers. Investor sales in the September quarter saw 17.1% of properties sell for a loss, compared with 10.4% of owner occupied sales.

Despite the higher rate of loss observed in investor sales in the quarter, the rate of properties re-sold at a loss was down from 18.0% in the June quarter, while the rate of loss making sales among owner occupiers was down from 11.1%.

The only region where there was a higher incidence of loss making sales among owner occupiers was across Hobart. This has been a consistent trend across the past few quarters. In the three months to September, 3.2% of owner occupied resales saw a nominal loss, compared with just 1% of investor sales.

The relatively low level of loss making sales among both cohorts reflects the exceptional capital growth across the Hobart market. CoreLogic home value indices show dwelling values across Hobart have seen annualised growth of 7.9% for the 5 years to December 2020, the highest annualised growth rate of the capital city markets.

Hold periods

Analysing returns by hold period suggests a greater amount of gain comes from more time in the market.

Over the September 2020 quarter, the median hold period of re-sale events across Australia was approximately 8.5 years. For profit making sales, the median hold period was 9 years, while loss making sales were typically held for 6.7 years. For houses and units, typical hold periods were longer across profit making resales.

The Australian housing market is expected to improve further in the coming months. With record low mortgage rates, a faster than expected economic recovery and relatively low cases of COVID-19, profitability is tipped to trend upwards over the coming quarters.

Eliza Owen is CoreLogic’s Head of Research Australia
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Regional Victoria and Hobart homes profited most in Q4 2020: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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By some measures, Hobart is the hottest market in Australia. In terms of typical days on market for houses to sell, the fastest-selling suburbs in Australia are now found in Hobart.
The latest survey of sales activity by Hotspotting confirms that impression: relative to its size, Hobart has more growth markets than any other capital city in Australia. Agents we trust tell us they’re selling homes as fast as they can list them.
Other sectors of the Tasmanian market are busy also, led by Launceston and some of the towns in the state’s north.
Sales activity in the state has been rising steadily over the past three years. In 2016 and early 2017, every quarter has achieved higher house sales than the equivalent period a year earlier, a pattern that’s been evident now for the past three years.
For example, if we compare the past three September quarters, sales have increased from 2,300 (2014) to 2,580 (2015) to 2,832 (2016). Sales in consecutive December quarters have climbed from 2,515 to 2,718 to 3,017.
For those and other reasons, Hotspotting has been forecasting the advance of real estate markets in Tasmania for the past two years.
Real estate in Hobart, and Tasmania generally, has risen on the back of greatly improved economic performance and elevated infrastructure spending. In the State of the States report by CommSec, Tasmania’s national ranking has recently risen from 7th to 4th - putting it ahead of Queensland, WA, SA and the Northern Territory.
This is reflected in the increasing number of busy suburbs in Hobart. Our latest survey reveals that the number of suburbs with rising markets has more than doubled in the last six months.
Affordability is a big driver in this market. There is a rising influence of investor buyers in the market, attracted by the status of Hobart as the cheapest capital city market in Australia (as well as the city with the lowest vacancies and highest rental yields).
With affordability a core attraction, it’s the cheaper areas of the Hobart metropolitan area that are doing the best (although all sectors are busy).
The Glenorchy LGA has five growth suburbs (Berriedale, Claremont, Glenorchy, West Moonah and Austins Ferry), while the Clarence LGA has four  (Geilston Bay, Rokeby, Warrane and Bellerive). To put that in context, the median house price for both Warrane and Claremont is $265,000, while Rokeby is $215,000 and Glenorchy is $275,000.
Glenorchy (the suburb) is typical of the growth markets - sales levels have been 47, 49, 55, 67, 70, 85, 80 and 91 in the past eight quarters. In Kingston in the Kingborough LGA in Hobart’s south, sales levels have been 50, 61, 65, 68, 71, 79, 70 and 82 in consecutive quarters.
Rising sales activity is now translating into good price growth. The latest figures from the SQM Research Asking Prices Index has Hobart houses up 14% and units up almost 17% in annual terms. Meanwhile, asking rents have risen 7% on average for houses and 13% for units.
But it’s not just a Hobart story; other centres, notably Launceston and Devonport, are doing well also.
In Launceston, house sales in consecutive quarters throughout 2016 were 422, 465, 470 and 480 - a rising pattern which has continued in 2017. The number of growth suburbs in the Launceston area, covering the Launceston and West Tamar LGAs, has risen strongly in recent surveys.
South Launceston typifies the growth in this market. Its sales levels have grown from 20 to 29 to 34 to 46 to 52 in the past five consecutive quarters, a pattern highly likely to deliver growth in property values.
In the north, the Wynyard, Devonport, Shearwater and Somerset markets are all rising.
So while there’s growing evidence that the headline markets like Sydney and Melbourne are fading, Hobart is still quite early in its up cycle and is likely to continue growing for some time.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Hobart the hottest market in Australia

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There’s mounting activity in and around real estate in Hobart and, according to media, it’s a sudden explosion.
A Domain report says there’s an “unprecedented” surge in activity from international developers “who are now ditching the mainland in favour of Hobart”. 
It reports a big increase in hotels planned for the city’s tourism industry – and in developers actively seeking sites for residential development.
Chief executive of Knight Frank Tasmania, Scott Newton, reports big demand for Hobart development sites, which is also described as “unprecedented”.
“Hobart has generally lagged the national market but we’re certainly seeing change unfold and there’s been a catch-up take place,” he says. 
I’m not surprised at the interest in the Hobart market – and it’s not sudden and it’s certainly not unprecedented. Hobart and Tasmania have been making a strong case for attention from investors of all kinds for a couple of years now.
Hobart has become a serious national player in the overall residential property scene, with its appealing mix of the lowest prices, tightest vacancies and highest rental yields in capital city Australia, underpinned by a greatly improved state economy.
Both SQM Research and CoreLogic have published recent data showing that annual price growth is strongest in Melbourne, followed by Canberra, with Hobart now challenging the leaders.
CoreLogic has Sydney now ranked third on price growth with Hobart fourth, while SQM rates Hobart as third best on capital growth and Sydney fourth. 
Vacancy rates remain tight or moderate in all of the state and territory capital cities except Perth, but Hobart has maintained its status as the tightest rental market. 
Both Domain and SQM Research record vacancies below 2% in Hobart, Canberra, Melbourne and Adelaide. Both sources have Sydney hovering around 2%, with Brisbane and Darwin both around 3%.
“Available rental accommodation in Hobart and Canberra remains scarce, with the lowest house vacancy rates of all the capitals at just 0.5% and 0.8% respectively,” says Domain chief economist Andrew Wilson. 
Here’s the key thing: none of this should surprise anyone who’s been paying attention. The rise of the Hobart market to national prominence has been entirely predictable and has been unfolding steadily throughout 2016 and 2017.
Here’s what I wrote on Property Observer 18 months ago, in February 2016: “For six months or more, I’ve been getting blank stares or responses like “Seriously?” whenever I suggest to investors they should be considering Hobart.
“It’s really easy to get a bad reputation and extremely hard to lose it. Tasmania has the image of a basket base economy. A state that’s losing population. A property market bereft of growth. 
“For many years, all of that has been true. It’s true no longer.  But most people won’t be convinced until they read there’s a boom on. And by then it will be too late to buy well.
“Perhaps it is already. According to the latest House Price Report from Domain, Hobart median prices rose 8.7% for houses and 7.1% for apartments in 2015. The apartment result is the second best among the capital cities, after Sydney.” 
That was February last year. Eighteen months later it’s certainly too late to get the best of the buying, with some research showing that the nation’s hottest suburbs, in terms of “Time On Market”, are all in Hobart. 
This is confirmed by reports from industry professionals at the coalface, who report that houses are selling as fast as they’re listed. 
There were two core factors that prompted that prediction about Hobart prices at the beginning of last year: the steady rise in sales activity and the improvement in the state economy.
At that time, numerous reports were recording the improvement in the Tasmanian economy including the NAB business survey, a Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook report and CommSec’s State of the States report.
But the bigger pointer for me was the research Hotspotting goes on sales volumes. Changes in sales activity are always a precursor to price movements, both up and down. Hotspotting analyses sales volumes patterns for every town and suburb in Australia every quarter – and that process forecast the price rises that are now occurring in the Hobart market.
In February 2016 I wrote:  “Cheap real estate, a market with rising momentum, underpinned by a strongly moving economy - it’s a package worth considering.’
Those who followed that advice would have bought well ahead of the price rises and done well – and will do better, because there’s more to come.
Buyers can still get into the Hobart market and achieve capital growth, but the best time to be there was 18 months ago.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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Hobart has become a serious national player in the residential property scene

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National residential listings fell by -4.8% to 303,901 in January, as sellers enjoyed the sunshine and trotting off on their summer hols, according to SQM Research. 
The monthly drop was driven by Melbourne (-13.9%) and Sydney (-6.9%). 
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X7AEY3BIk_M/WnlqPY5kKZI/AAAAAAAAoNM/Y9pH5Jfk3NsUDwG7pDjrLpZnLfxuKmnxQCLcBGAs/s640/sqm1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1376">
Despite the monthly decline, Sydney's listings at 26,150 are at the highest level since January 2009, being some +20.9% higher than a year earlier. For the first time in nearly half a decade, Sydney buyers will actually have some choice!
At the other end of the spectrum Melbourne listings are -11.9% lower year-on-year, while Hobart listings have copped an absolute shellacking. 
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-k0qjmmDauP0/WnmHj7Y11uI/AAAAAAAAoN8/YzsUfjuU2GUoiY2LrrmHG9VhQG7pBTIcACLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1359">
Hobart's housing market is now a buyer's nightmare with just 2,362 listings across the metropolitan area being some -29.1% down from January 2017. 
More strong price gains ahead for Hobart housing this year, then. 
In most other capital city markets stock listings were relatively flat from a year ago. Reported SQM: "Looking forward, with interest rates still at low levels and a possible expansion in lending by the banks, we expect a year of modest prices gains in Sydney and most other capital cities."
Interestingly SQM is quite positive for Sydney's prospects in 2018, certainly more so than most other commentators. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Hobart housing market is a buyer's nightmare: Pete Wargent

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The Hobart housing market has been the nation’s weakest performing capital city housing market for more than a decade.
There are now signs that the Hobart (and Tasmania’s) housing market may be in line for a steady improvement.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-1-2-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-1-2-580x208.jpg" alt="">
Over the 12 months to March 2016, home values in Hobart have increased by 4.8 percent while over the past two years values are only 4.5 percent higher highlighting that the value growth performance has been much stronger over the past year relative to the previous year.
The above chart shows the annual change in home values across all capital cities, with Hobart and the combined capital cities highlighted and the other cities in grey.  Although Hobart values have increased over the past year, the recent rise must be put in context, over the past decade home values in Hobart have increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent with values falling at an annual rate of -0.7 percent over the past five years.  Hobart’s decade growth performance is well behind Perth which has recorded the second lowest annual rate of growth over the period at 3.1 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-2-2-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-2-2-580x207.jpg" alt="">
It is interesting to look at the performance of the Hobart housing market in context with the performance of the Melbourne market. The previous chart shows that in 2003 and 2004 home value growth in Hobart surged. The rate of growth reached a peak of 57.9 percent annual growth in November 2003 and very shortly thereafter the growth performance in Hobart stalled and has been limited ever since.
The surge in Hobart dwellings came following a surge in Melbourne home values and at a similar time to which the rate of growth in Melbourne values began to slow.  Ever since the end of the last surge in home values in Hobart, Melbourne has recorded strong rises in home values while growth in Hobart has been minimal.
Melbourne has obviously recently seen a large surge in home values meaning that many home owners have substantial levels of equity in their property. Investment in the Tasmanian housing market which offers much lower home values and superior yields may be looking attractive for those in Melbourne looking for a lifestyle investment.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-3-2-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-3-2-580x207.jpg" alt="">
While value growth in Hobart is picking up, transaction volumes are relatively steady from where they were at the end of last year and virtually unchanged from a year ago.  In comparison, most other capital city housing markets are actually recording fewer property transactions than they were a year ago.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-4-2-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-4-2-580x206.jpg" alt="">
Looking at the current market, listings provides one of the best guides about the balance between buyers and sellers.  As listings move lower, buyers have less choice and vendors can be less flexible on their price expectations which can push values higher.  Over the 28 days to 17 April 2016 there were 376 newly advertised properties added to the Hobart housing market and 2,189 total property listings. 
New listings are 1.3 percent higher than they were a year ago and fairly flat over recent weeks.  Meanwhile, total listings are -26.2 percent lower than they were a year ago and as the table shows they are trending lower.  In fact, the number of listings is at its lowest level since October 2010.  With new listings slightly higher than a year ago and total listing much lower it suggests that there is limited new supply coming to the market with increasing demand which is causing total listing volumes to trend much lower.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-5-2-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-5-2-580x210.jpg" alt="">
One of the main drivers of the surge in Hobart home values in 2003 and 2004 was the positive migration trends for Tasmania.  The above table shows that in 2003 and early 2004 both net overseas and net interstate migration were positive.  The chart also shows that typically there is an outflow of residents of Tasmania to other states and territories while net overseas migration is usually positive.  Over the past few quarters, for the first time in a number of years, net interstate migration to Tasmania has been positive.  It is still early days but should this trend continue over the coming quarters it could be a positive for the Tasmania housing market.
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<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-6-1-580x208.jpg" alt="">
People will generally only move to a new region if they are reasonably comfortable that they can find employment.  The unemployment rate in Tasmania has ticked up over recent months and job creation has slowed which may act as a deterrent to make the move to a market like Hobart.  However, if we look at 2003 and 2004 when home values were surging and migration to Tasmania was quite strong, job creation was stronger although the unemployment rate was in the high 6% to low 7% range compared to a similar 6.9% currently.  Keep in mind that some people will move to Tasmania and Hobart as a lifestyle choice so they may be able to do their current job remotely or may commute back to the mainland a few days a week / each month.  Furthermore, a proportion of people that move interstate would be retirees and therefore their decision is not reliant upon securing employment.
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<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-7-1-580x213.jpg" alt="">
Tourism is likely to be a growing source of employment for those living in Tasmania.  According to data from Tourism Research Australia, international visitor numbers to Tasmania increased by 19.6 percent in 2015 and have increased by 53 percent over the past five years. Meanwhile, domestic overnight trips to Tasmania increased by 17.3 percent in 2015 and have increased by 40 percent over the past five years.  Should the ramp-up in tourism continue it will create even more employment opportunities in the local economy.
When you look at the housing and economic indicators for Hobart it looks like the market is well positioned to see an increase in the rate of housing demand and subsequently home values over the coming year.  Of course Hobart also has the advantage of being a substantially more affordable housing market than all of the other capital cities.  Any of these indicators could change and most importantly if job creation picked up pace and the unemployment rate fell it would provide further positives for the local market.  Nevertheless, it looks as if the fundamentals are in place for a long-awaited improvement in value growth for the Hobart housing market.
 Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Hobart's time to shine: Cameron Kusher

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The expiry of Tasmania's first home buyer incentives for purchasers of established dwellings in 2014 saw first home buyer demand decline, according to QBE’s latest housing report.
First home buyer demand in the state has since bottomed out and is now in a recovery phase, the report said.
Loans to first home buyers increased by an annual 6% in 2015/16 and the rising trend has been accelerating, with loans to first home buyers in June quarter 2016 being 24% higher than the same period a year earlier.
It is likely that some of this demand stems from increased interstate migration. In contrast, purchase activity by upgraders and downsizers has been easing, with loans to non–first home buyers having fallen by 4% in 2015/16.
Demand from investors has also been decreasing, with the total value of loans to investors having fallen by an annual 13% in 2015/16. As with the other states, tightened lending policy by the banks is containing investor demand, although the decline in 2015/16 has been lower than the national decline.
Rental growth has been largely flat and vacancy rates are close to balance at just under 3% through 2015/16.
House prices in Hobart were flat in 2014/15, but picked up in 2015/16, with the median house price increasing by 5.2%. Tasmania’s net interstate migration outflow has been steadily declining since peaking in 2011/12, and interstate migration is on track to record a net inflow in 2015/16.
Part of the driver of this recovery is likely to be increased “tree changers” downsizing from the more expensive mainland capitals, while there are also likely to be many returnees from the mining states who contributed to the higher net interstate migration outflows of recent years.
House price growth has been unevenly spread across the Local Government Areas of Hobart. Median house price growth has been particularly strong in Hobart (10.1%), Clarence (8.4%) and Kingborough (6.9%). Glenorchy (1.1%) and Brighton (2.8%) saw more moderate house price growth while Sorell (–3.3%) experienced a decline in its median house price. The overall Greater Hobart median grew 5.2% over 2015/16.
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The Tasmanian economy has been weak in recent years. A high Australian dollar and slow population growth have added to general economic weakness. However, improved household spending, non–residential building activity and improving exports suggest a stronger economic recovery.
The weakening Australian dollar should support growth in tourism while the agricultural and mining industries should also benefit. The state unemployment rate fell from 7.8% at March 2014 to 6.6% at March 2016. Greater Hobart has a lower unemployment rate than the rest of the state, having fallen from 6.7% to 6.1% over the same period.
Greater Hobart has also been the main destination for migrants from overseas, interstate and the rest of Tasmania, with its population rising by 0.8% in 2014/15 while the population of the rest of Tasmania was flat.
On the supply side, completions at the state level have continued to rise while underlying demand has been slow. This has seen Tasmania’s dwelling surplus climb from 4,800 dwellings to an estimated 5,300 dwellings at June 2016. Given the disparity between population growth, it is likely that the oversupply is greater in regional Tasmania.
Reflecting lower income levels and fewer drivers of employment, Hobart has the lowest median house price compared to the other state capitals. Its relative affordability compared to other capital cities is a significant driver of demand as interstate migrants seek a more affordable market.
The current low interest rate environment is expected to improve affordability and spur purchaser demand, the QBE report said. Poor affordability in Melbourne and Sydney is expected to fuel further migration to Tasmanian cities, a trend already evident with the net interstate inflow forecast to increase further to 1,000 persons in 2016/17 and 2017/18.
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Overall, the gradual recovery in the local economy and interstate migration is expected to underpin price growth, while the presence of an excess dwelling stock at the state level will likely limit price growth to more moderate levels. Hobart’s median house price is forecast to rise from $377,900 at June 2016 to $425,000 by June 2019, reflecting growth of around 4% per annum or a cumulative 12.5%.
With a significantly smaller unit market, and thus a smaller sample of sales volumes to measure the median, movement in the median unit price in Hobart can be much more volatile from quarter to quarter. Overall, however, median unit prices have been in a gradual decline since its peak median price of $420,000 in June 2011.
With falling investor demand, the unit market could experience the greatest impact as investor purchasers have traditionally been more prevalent buying units.
This softness is expected to continue to dampen demand, limiting median unit price growth to a forecast 1%–2% per annum through to 2018/19. This is forecast by QBE to push the median unit price to $315,000 at June 2019; a cumulative growth of 4.5% over the forecast period.
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