John Kolenda

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While there has been talk around when interest rates will rise again, it appears that, for now at least, low interest rates might just be the new normal for investors.
After the Reserve Bank kept the interest rate on hold on Tuesday, surprising no one, 1300HomeLoan’s managing director John Kolenda has suggested that, despite continual suggestions of where the future rate may be heading, we’re likely to stick with lows for the foreseeable future. This, he noted, would make low rates the “new normal”.
“Prior to the global financial crisis the norm for the RBA's official rate was around the 5% mark,” he said.
“The historical rates over the last 30 years have been much higher than for the previous few years. Consumer confidence is playing a bigger role in determining rate movements.”
Potential increases over the next six to 12 months will still be low compared to historical rates, he noted.
“Based on the sensitivity of consumers to rate rises, we are likely to see medium term rates at historical lows and smaller variances in movement,” he said.
He claimed that anyone trying to predict a rise is “a brave person” until there’s more positive data broadly, rather than just rising house prices that the Reserve Bank has expressed concerns about.
 “In the current economic climate, the RBA has no choice but to keep rates on hold and likely to tread carefully if they raise sometime later this year,” he said, pointing to weak retail results, a slowdown in the resources sector and unemployment growth as counter balances to a strong housing market.
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Low interest rates may be “new normal”: John Kolenda

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McGrath Limited today announced its FY19 first half results, with its revenue down 18 percent to $42.5 million.
The ASX listed company noted that trading to the end of January 2019 had been in line with the guidance provided last October.
However, trading over the first two weeks of February 2019 has been below those expectations, with generally lower listing volumes and lower average sale prices than expected.
The company post a statutory net loss after tax (NLAT) of $9.6 million.
McGrath company owned offices
1,367 sales $1.9 billion in 1H F19 
1,712 sales $2.6 billion in 1H FY18 
2,544 sales $3.5 billion in 1H FY17.
McGrath franchise offices
3,495 sales $3.1 billion in 1H FY19.
4,324 sales $3.9 billion in 1H FY18
4,222 sales $3.8 billion in 1H FY17. 
Total McGrath offices combined
4862 sales $5 billion 1H FY19
6036 sales $6.5 billion 1H FY18
6776 sales $7.3 billion 1H FY17
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As at 31 December 2018 the network comprised 27 company owned offices and 68 franchise offices with 552 agents operating within those offices. 
The total number of offices has remained consistent with June 2018 with 2 openings and 2 closures with 1 transfer from franchise services to company owned sales.
Total agents marginally decreased to 552 from June 18 (558) with reductions in the project marketing and franchise businesses offset by gains in the residential company owned sales segment. 
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Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/18/McGrath2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/18/McGrath2.jpg" alt="">
"While March is a seasonally higher listings month, the upcoming elections, together with the late timing of Easter and general market uncertainty reduces the current visibility into the third and fourth quarters.
"Should the balance of the second half continue to be impacted, the Company will update the market in accordance with its continuous disclosure obligations," the board advised shareholders adding ongoing difficult trading conditions were expected given external factors such as the NSW and Federal elections, potentially further impacting performance of the property market and McGrath.
The estate agency advised the continuing subdued property market conditions had impacted McGrath’s performance in the first six months of the 2019 financial year, resulting in an underlying EBITDA loss for the first half of $2.5 million.
This result comprises the previously reported first quarter loss of $1.9 million and a reduced second quarter loss of $600,000, although in line with guidance provided to the market last October.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/18/McGrath3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/18/McGrath3.jpg" alt="">
“Market conditions are expected to remain soft during 2019, however there have been some signs of optimism with buyers, especially owner-occupiers who are increasingly more active as prices return to more affordable levels in many areas," Geoff Lucas, CEO of McGrath, said.
“Economic factors are contributing to a significant reduction in transaction volumes," McGrath reported citing industry-wide settled sales for the real estate sector down nationally by 13.2%, and across the eastern Seaboard with Sydney down 20.3%, Melbourne down 22.3% and Brisbane down 11.3% on the 12 months to January 2019.
"Prices continue to weaken with national dwelling values to January 2019 down 5.6%, with Sydney down 9.7%, Melbourne down 8.3% and Brisbane in line with last year.”
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It noted a deterioration of higher value property prices in the market, and McGrath’s exposure to this segment, had adversely impacted its NSW result where there was a falling market sale share held by McGrath.
Its strongest growth in market. share was in Queensland.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
In February 2018 McGrath reported revenue for the six months to December 31, 2017 was $51.6 million, which was down 23 percent on the same period a year earlier.
McGrath reported a strong balance sheet at 31 December 2018 with no debt and $36.7 million in net assets with $16.5 million in cash.
The company noted that an additional $38 million in rent roll assets is not reflected on the balance sheet.
Its board remains focused on conserving cash for business reinvestment and will not pay an interim FY19 dividend.
McGrath’s dividend policy will be reinstated as soon as it is deemed prudent.
It reported its 27 company owned offices with 180 agents secured 1,367 property sales with a $1.9 billion value, over the six months to December 31, 2018.
The 68 franchise offices with 372 agents saw 3,495 property sales with a $3.1 billion value over the six months to December 31, 2018.
It compares with <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/80697-mcgrath-agents-get-850-000-additional-commission-windfall-to-stop-defections" target="_blank">the prior similar period </a>when company owned sales generating $2.6 billion in sales value from 1,712 sales for 1H FY18 and $3.5 billion and 2,544 sales in 1H FY17.
Its franchise services offices exchanged 4,324 sales during 1H FY18 with a sales value of $3.9 billion compared to 4,222 sales with a sales value of $3.8 billion in 1H FY17. 
With no trade this morning, the shares sit at 26 cents, a record low, with the company capitalised at $43 million.
It was in late 2015 when McGrath Holding Co Ltd (MEA ASX) filed a prospectus to sell a 53.7 per cent stake, or 72.1 million shares, for $2.10 each, giving it an envisaged market <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/49032-mcgrath-float-hits-asx-bourse-at-1-94" target="_blank">capitalisation of $281 million</a>.
Some two decades in the making, the real estate services company commenced trading at $1.94, slightly below the public offering price at $2.10.
 
 
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McGrath Estate Agents reports a weak start to 2019 sales

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The Agency's non-executive director John Kolenda has resigned from his role, effective immediately.
Kolenda joined the board exactly three years ago after growing the retail brokerage giant Finsure Group, which he founded and is the managing director.
He took an initial eight per cent stake in the company, which has been expanded over the past year.
Kolenda played a key role in the acquisition of the east coast real estate firm Top Level Real Estate.
He says his resignation is due to an increased workload in other areas.
"The Agency has grown significantly over a short period and is clearly on track to become one of the largest real estate businesses in Australia", Kolenda said.
"It has attracted some of the best agents and now we also have the key exectuives in place to continue the growth in driving sustained operation aal and financial growth across the business going forward.
"As a committed shareholder I will continue to follow and support this growth."
The announcement to the ASX comes with a couple of new appointments at the firm, who yesterday announced that they are on target for a record breaking quarter.
Andrew Jensen, The Agency's current interim chairman, has been appointed chief operating officer and Arjan van Ameyde, who has over 25 years experience in senior financial roles in listed companies, as the new chief financial officer.
Jensen will too step down from the board, from February 1 when he begins his new role. He has held The Agency's CFO role and has previously been the CFO at Ray White.
In November The Agency posted a record 128 sales valued at $234 million along with a record 197 listings.
Their cost saving program is beginning to see results also. Expenses are down from $10 million to $8.4 million in the year to date to November FY20.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/20/The%20Agency%20Revenue%20Expenses.jpg" alt="">
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The Agency Group’s Managing director Paul Niardone said the monthly results further highlight the continuing success of our model and the quality of agents within the business.
“Our December Quarter results look set to build on the record-breaking results of the September Quarter with the first two months of the current quarter already almost eclipsing last quarter’s GCI," Niardone said.
“Coupled with market improvements in the key markets of Sydney and Melbourne as well as an upturn in Perth in November for the first time in 18 months, 2020 looks set to be a milestone year for our company.” 
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John Kolenda

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