Property Crash

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GUEST OBSERVER
To modify Benjamin Franklin, it seems that in Australia nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes and endless debate about property prices.
Why is it so unaffordable? Are foreigners to blame? Is it a good investment? Is negative gearing the problem? Are property prices about to crash?
Worries about a property crash have been common since early last decade. In 2004, The Economist magazine described Australia as “America’s ugly sister” thanks in part to a “borrowing binge” and soaring property prices which had seen it become “another hotbed of irrational exuberance”. At the same time the OECD estimated Australian house prices were 51.8% overvalued.
Since the GFC, predictions of an imminent property crash have become more common with talk that a property crash will also crash the banks and the economy.
Our view since around 2003 has been that overvaluation and high levels of household debt leave the housing market vulnerable. As such it could be seen as Australia’s Achilles heel. However, in the absence of a trigger it’s been hard to see a property crash as a base case. Not much has really changed.
This note takes a look at the key issues and what it means for investors.
Overvalued, over loved and over indebted
The two basic problems with Australian housing are that it is expensive and household debt is high. Overvaluation is evident in numerous indicators:
According to the 2016 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey the median multiple of house prices in cities over 1 million people to household income is 6.4 times in Australia versus 3.7 in the US and 4.6 in the UK. In Sydney it’s 12.2 times and Melbourne is 9.7 times.
The ratios of house prices to incomes and rents are at the high end of OECD countries and have been since 2003.
Real house prices have been above trend since 2003.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.21.21%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.21.21%20AM.png" alt="">
 
The shift to overvaluation more than a decade ago went hand in hand with a surge in the ratio of household debt to income, which took Australia’s debt to income ratio from the low end of OECD countries to now being around the top.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.25.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.25.17%20AM.png" alt="" width="793" height="460">
 
Overvaluation and high household debt are central elements of claims that Australian house prices will crash. These concerns get magnified whenever there is a cyclical surge in prices as we have seen recently in Sydney and Melbourne.
But a crash seems elusive.
However, given the regularity with which crash calls for Australian property have been made over the last decade and their failure to eventuate, it’s clear it’s not as simple as it looks.
First, the main reason for the persistent "overvaluation" of Australian home prices relative to other countries is constrained supply. Until recently Australia had a chronic under supply of over 100,000 dwellings, as can be seen in the next chart that tracks housing completions versus underlying demand.
Completions are at record levels but they are just catching up with the undersupply of prior years.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.27.01%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.27.01%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Secondly, Australia has not seen anything like the deterioration in lending standards other countries saw prior to the GFC. There has been no growth in so-called low doc and sub-prime loans which were central to the US housing crisis. In fact in recent years there has been a decline in low doc loans and a reduction in loans with high loan to valuation ratios. See the next chart. And much of the increase in debt has gone to older, wealthier Australians, who are better able to service their loans.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.28.32%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.28.32%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Third, and related to this, there are no significant signs of mortgage stress. Debt interest payments relative to income are low thanks to low interest rates. See the next chart.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.29.34%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.29.34%20AM.png" alt="">
By contrast in the US prior to the GFC interest rates were starting to rise. Yet in Australia bad debts and arrears are low.
While new loan sizes have increased, Australians seem focussed on cutting their debt once they get it.
Finally, while some seem to think that because property prices in mining towns like Karatha are now crashing this is a sign that other cities will follow. This is non-sensensical. Property prices in mining towns surged thanks to a population influx that flowed from the mining boom. This is now reversing. Perth and Darwin are also being affected by this but to a less degree. By contrast the surge in property prices in cities like Sydney and Melbourne that occurred into early last decade predated the mining boom and their latest gains largely occurred because the end of the mining boom allowed lower interest rates.
The current state of play
Our assessment is that the boom in Sydney and Melbourne is slowing thanks in large part to APRA’s measures to slow lending to property investors. However, house price growth is likely to remain positive this year. Price growth is likely to remain negative in Perth and Darwin as the mining boom continues to unwind. Hobart &amp; Adelaide are likely to see continued moderate property growth, but Brisbane may pick up a bit.
Nationwide price falls are unlikely until the RBA starts to raise interest rates and this is unlikely before 2017. And then in the absence of a recession or rapid interest rate hikes price falls are more likely to be 5-10% as was seen in the 2009 and 2011 down cycles rather than anything worse.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.31.43%20AM.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2011.31.43%20AM.png" alt="">
 
What to watch for a property crash?
To see a property crash – say a 20% average fall or more – we probably need to see one or more of the following:
A recession – much higher unemployment could clearly cause debt servicing problems. At this stage a recession looks unlikely though.
A surge in interest rates – but the RBA is not stupid; it knows households are now more sensitive to higher rates.
Property oversupply – this is a risk but would require the current construction boom to continue for several years.
Implications for investors
There are several implications for investors:
While housing has a long term role to play in investment portfolios it is looking somewhat less attractive as a medium term investment. It is expensive, offers very low income (rental) yields compared to all other assets except bank deposits and Government bonds and it’s vulnerable to possible changes to taxation arrangements around property.
There are pockets of value, eg in regional areas. You just have to look for them.
As Australians already have a high exposure to residential property (directly and via bank shares and property trusts), there is a case to maintain a decent exposure to say unhedged global shares because it could provide an offset if it turns out I am wrong and the Australian property market does have a crash.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

How valid are crash calls for the Australian property market? Shane Oliver

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It’s hard to read a paper at the moment without finding an array of negative headlines about Sydney’s declining property market.  While media reports paint an overwhelming gloomy picture for the market, a closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story.
<h2>Sydney’s top end dragging down the averages</h2>
The Sydney residential property market as a whole recorded negative growth in the first quarter and for the year to April 2018.
However, the latest data from CoreLogic shows this result was largely driven by the premium end of the market.
The most affordable 20% of dwelling values recorded gains in these periods.
In fact, the more affordable half of Sydney dwelling values recorded an uptick in prices when averaged out over the year to April 2018. However, a pullback at the more expensive end caused the overall average to be weighed down.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/08/shutterstock_343792502.jpg" alt="">
The top end of Sydney dwelling values ($1.4m-$1.8m+) experienced the most significant decline. These properties suffered a substantial 7.2% decline over the 12 months to April 2018 which dragged the average down to -3.4% for the market overall.
Affordable property at the medium-low price ranges (under $875K) has been far more resilient.
“We often tell our investors to read the numbers, and understand the data, not the sensational headlines, and this is a typical case in point,” said Ironfish Head of Property, William Mitchell.
“Sydney has been an incredibly hot market so we do expect the overall market to trend sideways for a period. However, as the data demonstrates, there are sub-markets which can outperform the wider market, and these are the markets that we are looking for when it comes to selecting property to recommend to our investors.
“Though there will be a pullback in prices in pockets of Sydney, owners need to remember the market has increased significantly since the boom began in 2011, so a small adjustment is not a ‘bust’.”
<h2>Melbourne property market continues to perform</h2>
Like Sydney, the headlines for Melbourne property have focussed on the negative; specifically, Melbourne’s marginal decline (-0.7%) in residential property values for the first quarter of 2018.
Yet the data reveals that the Melbourne market has continued to perform, with the vast majority of price points recording positive growth over the 12 months to April 2018.
The affordable end of the market again recorded the largest gains. Properties priced $803K and under recorded an average gain of 9.87% in the year to April 2018 – a very strong result.
Only the most expensive dwellings (i.e. the top 10% of prices) recorded a negative gain in Q1.
<h4>The return of first home buyers </h4>
<div id="ig-8773e3f7-dd3f-1231-f65f-9208c80a9c5b" class="infogram-embed" data-id="8d184527-937a-4799-b7df-1c93ee767c42" data-type="interactive" data-title="First Home Buyers, All States " data-processed="1"> <iframe title="First Home Buyers, All States " src="https://e.infogram.com/8d184527-937a-4799-b7df-1c93ee767c42?src=embed#async_embed" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="320" height="240"></iframe>
</div>
The outperformance of more affordable product has been much attributed to more first home buyers returning to the market. This is a trend we’ve seen not just in Sydney and Melbourne, but also across all the 5 major capital cities.
<h4>First Home Buyer mortgages on the rise</h4>
In Melbourne, strong population growth coupled with the increasing appeal of apartment living has further underpinned demand for the affordable end of the market.
Melbourne apartments recorded the strongest capital growth (6.8%) compared to apartments in any of the other 5 major capital cities for the year to April 2018.
Given Melbourne house prices have increased up to 70% since mid-2013, apartments continue to offer a significantly more affordable alternative to buyers.  At current median values, a Melbourne apartment is about 33.9% cheaper than purchasing a standalone house – providing a very strong incentive.
“With the tighter lending environment at the moment, affordability is definitely the flavour of the month. As a result, we are seeing more buyers turning to apartments and this market is expected to perform well in the medium term,” Mr Mitchell said.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Is the property market crashing? 

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RBA liaison believes it can see through the downturn in construction to the other side.
Below Scutty reports on the latest AiG construction index gauge:
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XgQZzrxcIIM/XenLm_8jMII/AAAAAAAAzOk/ysAVnkMDPoMCnM41cdRqrZxiiHZVAFM9QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AIG1.jpg" width="640" height="136" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="663">
Apartments (37), engineering (33.3) and commercial (43.7) all came in with very contractionary readings. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-l136Sd1V4sw/XenLm0vwVNI/AAAAAAAAzOo/L8SgToObOWQzHb4nrfOYEQtYB-oLGwlpACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AIG2.jpg" width="640" height="204" data-original-height="513" data-original-width="1600">
Perhaps house building is due to lift soon, but otherwise, it's another stinker.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Construction continues crashing: Pete Wargent

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Standard &amp; Poor's has placed 25 second tier Australian banks, insurers and buildings societies on negative watch as it becomes concerned about rising household debt and property values.
The change in ratings comes as the agency adjusted its assessment of Australia's economic risk trends from stable to negative. 
While S&amp;P said that growth in debt and property prices would likely moderate, there was a one in three chance that the strong growth would continue, leading to increased risks of a sharp correction that would hurt lenders. 
Among the largest institutions impacted are AMP Bank, Bank of Queensland, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Macquarie whose current ratings were placed on negative outlook.
Several other building societies and regional lenders such as Cuscal and CUA also had their ratings outlook revised to negative.  
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<div>The ratings outlooks of the major banks had already been placed on negative outlook because of the action taken on the AAA Australian sovereign rating.</div>
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<div>S&amp;P said that private sector debt as a percentage of GDP had grown to 139 per cent  to 118 per cent in 2012, an average increase of 5.2 per cent while property prices had increased by 5.3 per cent, after adjusting for inflation.   </div>
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"Strong growth in private sector debt (to about 139 per cent of GDP in June 2016 from 118 per cent in 2012, or an annual average increase of 5.2 percentage points) coupled with an increase in property prices nationally (average inflation-adjusted increase for the past four years was 5.3 per cent nationally) are driving the potential increase in imbalances in the economy, in our view.
"Consequently, we believe the risks of a sharp correction in property prices could increase and if that were to occur, credit losses incurred by all financial institutions operating in Australia are likely to be significantly greater; with about two-thirds of banks' lending assets secured by residential home loans--the impact of such a scenario on financial institutions would be amplified by the Australian economy's external weaknesses, in particular its persistent current account deficits and high level of external debt."
The impact of any sharp drop in property prices would be greater on banks, because more than 60 per cent of their loans were for residential property, it said.
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One in three chance of strong growth triggering sharp correction in property: S&P

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Finance commentator and Channel 7's Sunrise breakfast host, David Koch has offered six signs which show the housing market could be about to change.
"The recent Reserve Board minutes showed it was quite comfortable with the state of the property market," he told the Telegraph.
"Some international commentators however are predicting an imminent crash in values."
He said that rather than speculate, the more important thing is to understand the major signals which could points to a change in the property market.
1. Rising interest rates
"Borrowing money has never been cheaper," David says.
Record low interest rates have meant property buyers have been borrowing more for less.
But this period of easy money can lead to a financially deadly "debt trap" for those who overdo it.
A rise in interest rates on a four percent home loan doesn't sound much until you realise it would mean a 50 percent jump in repayments.
2. Rising unemployment 
With 25 consecutive years of positive economic growth, the job market has been pretty solid and unemployment has been relatively low.
That has been good news for the property market because stable employment gives buyers the confidence to get into the market or trade up.
If the economy slows, the job market deteriorates, unemployment rises, incomes become uncertain, confidence falls and property prices suffer.
3. Falling auction clearance rates
Auction clearance rates are a regular, consistent barometer of a property market health.
It's an indicator on the balance between buyers and sellers, which is the fundamental supply and demand foundation of all property markets.
The higher the clearance rate, the healthier the market as it indicates there are plenty of buyers competing for stock on the market. 
4. Rising vacancy rates
Investors buy property for both capital growth and income from rents.
The key to making an investment property stack up financially is they must have tenants paying rent.
Rising property vacancy rates means there aren't enough tenants to go around so investors will either have to slash their rents to attract tenants or sell the property.
5. Falling rental yields
Linked to increasing rental vacancy rates.
A property is valued on the rental income it can produce and its capital growth prospects from rising values.
If vacancy rates rise, landlords will have to lower their rents to attract tenants or the property will be vacant and earn no income.
6. Above-average construction numbers
 Property is about demand and supply.
If construction outstrips demand then values will fall as sellers compete to attract buyers.
That's the current concern about the Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane inner-city home unit market.
A huge amount of construction is under way and there are fears that when these developments are finished, there will be an oversupply and values will fall.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Six signs to look for if a property crash is on the way: David Koch

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The property market may be in for a hard landing as early has 2017, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley’s recent predictions.
The reasons cited are a soft rental market, an oversupply of new apartments and worsening affordability, says an article in the Australian Financial Review based on Morgan Stanley’s outlook.
It predicts apartment approvals to fall by more than half over the next two years as settlement risks and a sharp cut in development financing hurts developers.
"In short, we believe the growth contribution from the housing boom has already peaked and look for a plateau over 2017 and decline through 2018," strategists Daniel Blake, Steven Ye, Chris Nicol and Antony Conte write.
"New apartment projects should slow sharply as focus turns to settlement of the existing pipeline."
The outlook is based on more pessimistic expectations about net migration rates than others, according to Morgan Stanley, and is the result of a new index  — MSHAUS — combining six factors including oversupply, rental vacancy rates that could rise to 4.5 percent from 3 percent in two years, tighter lending standards and lower expected growth in home values.
The index is in a range close to its lowest level since 2004, says the report. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/21/MorganStanley.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/21/MorganStanley.jpg" alt="">
"A growing overbuild, deteriorating rental market conditions, further worsening in housing accessibility, tighter credit supply and more subdued price expectations all suggest a further softening in the outlook over 2017," it says.
Planning approvals of apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes will fall to 57,000 in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 124,000 in trend terms in July this year, the report says. 
Settlement risk – both for individual buyers and whole developments – is a major concern. 
"In our view, the greatest vulnerability is settlement risk on the 160,000 apartments that we forecast completing through end 2017," the report says. "Listed developers report low failure rates currently, but also confirm credit availability has tightened, especially for foreign investors."
It also applies to buildings, despite the growth of alternative financing sources. 
The report says the nearly $120 billion in settlements due by end-2018 makes this a genuine concern.
The rental market is also the softest since 2003, it says. 
"We think they will weaken further, on the back of an increasing apartment overbuild. Rent inflation has already slowed sharply and is running at a record low of 0.9 percent, year on year."
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Housing boom to decline through 2018 as soft rental market, oversupply bite: Morgan Stanley

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While a property market crash and its impact on the Australian economy is a topic of hot debate, some experts say a slump in consumer spending is a more immediate threat to the economy.
The view comes in the wake of the latest <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/74812-big-four-banks-defend-lending-practices-against-four-corners-claims" target="_blank">ABC Four Corners show</a> which noted that “for every $1 earned, on average, Australians have nearly $2 of debt” and it stems from a national obsession with buy property.
Household debt hit a record high of 190 per cent of yearly disposable income in the March quarter, according to the Reserve Bank.
Show presenter Sarah Ferguson said the programme would explore “what happens if Australia’s debt-fuelled housing boom comes to a crashing end”.
Two of the interviewees, Roy Palleson and Rowena Ebona, a Sydney couple on a combined income of $135,000, said they owed $1.2 million on five investment properties worth $1.5 million.
A fall in property prices would leave Roy and Rowena, and thousands of other investors, holding more in mortgage debt than they owned in property, with little or no buffer.
However, University of New South Wales economist Richard Holden said a drop in consumer spending was a more immediate concern.
“If you have more of a drop on consumer spending, you’re going to see a contraction on the business side. It flows straight into business investment and business expansion, and that has a multiplier effect,” he told The New Daily.
“They’re not going to be in the mood to give big pay rises or wage rises at all. They’re not going to be employing people and so that then compounds on the consumer side. It just goes round in a vicious circle.”
The latest GDP figures from the March quarter reveals that the share of economic growth flowing to wage earners fell to 51.5 per cent, the lowest since 1964.
Household consumption currently accounts for about 57 per cent of GDP and any drop in consumer spending from cash-poor workers would hit growth.
The economy only grew by 0.4 per cent in the March quarter.
The widely-cited consumer confidence index compiled by Roy Morgan has fallen for the past three weeks. The latest ‘confidence’ rating fell to 109.2 points on August 20, down from 118.4 on July 30.
Dr Holden also says that there are far more factors – such as state and federal stimulus – propping up house prices than those aimed at boosting consumer spending and wage growth.
“It’s been well discussed what is propping up the property side, with negative gearing and things like that,” he said.
“On the consumer side, when you’ve got high personal income tax rates and not much talk of cuts to those, that’s not going to help consumer spending. And then of course wage growth has been really low and stagnant.”
“We learned last week that wages grew in 2016-17 by just 1.9 per cent, the lowest of any financial year since at least 1997, and exactly the same speed as inflation. This meant wages are failing to outpace the cost of living.”
Wages in the private sector grew just 1.8 per cent over the fiscal year, meaning the majority of the workforce actually copped a wage cut in real terms, he said.
Meanwhile, property prices continue to be resilient in spite of regulatory measures.
Brendan Coates, a fellow at the Grattan Institute, said the bigger risk “at the moment” from the property market was a drop in household consumption.
“If households found themselves in difficulty with servicing their debts, the more likely scenario would be that they curb their spending in order to meet their obligations, to keep repaying those debts,” he was cited as saying by The New Daily.
He pointed to RBA research that found that the spending of households on variable-rate mortgages was very sensitive to changes in interest rates.
The effects would likely reverberate through the economy, especially the labour market, he said.
“If you have households reducing their spending, that slows income growth through the economy, which presents risks for unemployment,” he said.
“If households are not confident in where things are going, they won’t spend as much and that will have flow-on impacts to other sectors and other industries.”
An example of how this might hurt the economy is the recent warning from G8 Education, the Gold Coast-based childcare centre operator, that sluggish wages growth had contributed to a drop in demand for childcare, cutting into its revenue.
Even without such a consumer-led crisis, Coates said record-low wage growth and low inflation meant mortgage debt would “loom larger for much longer”, instead of being eroded away.
 
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Anaemic consumer spending bigger threat than property crash: Experts

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Treasurer Scott Morrison has reassured US investors – and Australian mums and dads – that Australia is not heading towards any housing market crash.
He noted house prices were high but their value was still "real".
<a href="https://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/speech/025-2017/" target="_blank">In a speech in New York to investors overnight</a>, Mr Morrison pushed back at a recent warning from the International Monetary Fund about particularly high levels of household debt in Australia.
He pointed to a series of measures taken by prudential regulator APRA to constrain access to credit.
"The rise in housing values has been driven principally by genuine economic forces of supply and demand, where mortgages are subject to full recourse finance, supported by a strong, stable and resilient banking system and world's best practice credit standards.
"Low or no doc loans that crippled US housing markets are a rarity in Australia."
Morrison acknowledged household debt in Australia was high, with about 80 per cent of Australia's $2.1 trillion in household debt tied up in mortgages.
"This is a real risk, if not properly managed, and we get it", but added the figures needed context.
"While Australia's housing markets, especially in our largest cities, have experienced strong growth over the past decade this, of itself, is not evidence of an underlying weakness in housing asset values, nor that a hard landing for our housing markets is ahead," he said.
"Australian housing values, while high, are still real. 'Safe as houses' still broadly means something in Australia."
He noted the two occasions when we have seen considerable price pressures in homes in the last decade have both coincided with periods when the construction of new homes simply wasn't keeping up with population growth.
"In the last four years, supply has moved ahead of population to now build the strongest cumulative growth in stock in 25 years.
"This increase in stock is now working its way through the backlog, and there remains a strong pipeline going forward.
"In this year's Budget I announced additional measures to ensure supply keeps up with demand in the future, and am now working with our provincial Governments to improve the responsiveness and forward planning of the zoning and regulatory approvals system.
"This includes providing tax incentives for affordable housing investment, through managed investment trusts, that would be of real interest to US pension funds, providing a fifty percent withholding tax reduction from 30 per cent to 15 per cent for such investments, including development projects."
He noted as observed by Moody's in their credit report last month, when they once again maintained Australia's AAA credit rating, APRA's "proactive prudential policies bolster the resilience of the banking sector" and mitigate the risks of high household debt.
"And the proof, as always, is in the pudding."
Citing capital city house prices only rose 0.3 per cent in September to be 8.5 per cent higher through the year, he said APRA's measures, which have the full support of the government, are working to smooth the landing in our housing markets.
Morrison has visited New York and Washington for meetings at the IMF, the World Bank and of G20 Finance ministers.
 
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