Regional Victorian leads the nation in house price growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder
EXPERT OBSERVER
Regional Victoria is the stand-out market in Australian real estate. Against a backdrop of Regional Australia providing the leading growth markets across the nation, Regional Victoria has large numbers of towns and suburbs with rising buyer demand and the strongest price growth anywhere in Australia.
Our Summer survey of sales activity has identified 51 markets in Regional Victoria with rising demand, the highest since we started our quarterly sales surveys four years ago. Only Adelaide among the nation’s market jurisdictions has more growth markets than Regional Victoria – which also has another 90 locations with steady buyer demand.
The uplift in markets in Victoria outside Melbourne has created exceptional price growth: our latest survey has found 118 locations with median house price growth above 5% in the past 12 months, including 85 above 10% - of which 25 have grown more than 20%. A key factor is that most of these places have delivered price growth in the most recent quarter, as well as the past year, which means prices are still growing.
The leading locations are Clunes and Macedon (top) up 36%; Bunyip and North Wonthaggi 32%; Norlane 29%; Trentham 28%; Port Fairy 27%; Corio and Newcomb 26%; Warragul 24%; Officer, Cockatoo, Romsey, Whittington and Indented Head 22%; Inverloch, Loch Sport, Maryborough and Golden Point 21%; Avoca, Beveridge, Broadford, Maddingley, St Leonards and Woodend all 20%.
Bendigo, which overtook previous market leader Ballarat in our Spring 2018 survey, has increased its lead in the Summer survey. It now has 10 suburbs with rising demand, making it one of the leading LGAs in the nation. Growth suburbs include California Gully, Golden Square, Kangaroo Flat, Long Gully, Maiden Gully and North Bendigo.
The recent surge in sales activity is starting to create solid price growth, with California Gully, Eaglehawk, Flora Hill, Heathcote, Kennington and North Bendigo all up 6-8% in the past year. Like Ballarat, Bendigo is attracting both investors and home-buyers from Melbourne and elsewhere.
Growth markets in Ballarat, which is ahead of Bendigo in the market cycle, have reduced to five and there are now 10 suburbs classified as “plateau” markets. The previous uplift in demand has created a climate where most Ballarat suburbs are delivering big price growth: 14 suburbs are up by more than 5% in the past year, headed by Golden Point (21%), Buninyong (15%), Ballarat North (15%), Redan (16%) and Wendouree (17%).
A new contender has emerged in our past two quarterly surveys: the towns of the Latrobe Valley. Traralgon, Churchill, Moe, Morwell and Newborough all have growth markets. Quarterly sales in Churchill have been rising steadily, with the median house price up 9% in the past 12 months – but still below $200,000.
Quarterly sales have also risen in Moe in the past year and its median has grown 3%, but also remains below $200,000. This high level of affordability is a key drawcard for this market, which is being boosted by government investment to mitigate the impact of power station closures.
Geelong remains a strong market – one of the nation’s most prolific – but sales activity is no longer growing the way it has over the past two years. It now has more plateau markets than rising ones. But the strong demand of the past two years continues to deliver price growth – 24 suburbs of Greater Geelong have risen more than 10% in the past 12 months, with Corio, Norlane, Newcomb, St Leonards, Whittington and Indented Head all above 20%.
Other regions where demand has passed its peak but price growth remains high include the LGAs of Cardinia (Pakenham, Officer, Bunyip and Emerald), Baw Baw (Warragul, Drouin and Trafalgar), Mitchell (Broadford, Beveridge and Kilmore), Surf Coast (Anglesea, Apollo Bay and Torquay), Bass Coast (Cowes, Inverloch and Wonthaggi) and Macedon Ranges (Gisborne, Kyneton, Romsey and Woodend).
But new growth markets are now occurring right across Victoria. At Portland in the far south-west of the state – quarterly sales have been on an upward trajectory for the past two years.
Also in the south-west, there’s rising activity in Warrnambool, with median prices up 14% in Koroit and 7% in Warrnambool, while in nearby Port Fairy the median house price has risen 27% to $620,000.
In the Central Goldfields, quarterly sales in Maryborough have increased in the past 12 months and its median house price has grown 21% to $225,000.
In the far east of the state, three locations in East Gippsland have rising demand – Bairnsdale, Eastwood and Lakes Entrance. Quarterly sales in Bairnsdale have grown from 50-55 12-18 months ago to 70-75 more recently. The median price in Lakes Entrance has grown 12% to $320,000 in the past year, while Metung is up 7% to $365,000.
Other markets with growing signs of uplift include Shepparton, Wangaratta and Wodonga.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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